[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Quiet North Korea during 'Yoon's Diplomatic Super Week'... Preparing a Major Provocation?

North Korea Shows No Additional Provocations Over a Month After Last Month's ICBM Test Launch
Attention on Possible Resumption of Provocations at G7 US-Japan-South Korea Summit on the 19th

More than a month has passed since North Korea test-fired its solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) ‘Hwasong-18’ last month, and attention is focused on when it will resume military provocations.

According to North Korean media on the 15th, instead of making public appearances recently, Chairman Kim Jong-un has been concentrating on anti-U.S. and South Korean activities by holding ‘revenge resolution meetings’ aimed at inciting hostility among residents toward the two countries.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Following the announcement of the ‘Washington Declaration,’ which significantly strengthened extended deterrence between South Korea and the U.S., North Korea escalated its level of opposition targeting the two countries day after day, starting with a statement from Kim Yo-jong, the sister of Chairman Kim Jong-un and vice department director of the Workers’ Party. Analysts interpret this as propaganda aimed at consolidating the regime by citing external threats and building justification for future provocations.

Experts on North Korea believe that Pyongyang is preparing a major provocation in response to the enhanced extended deterrence measures and is likely to carry it out around the time of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit at the Group of Seven (G7) summit starting on the 19th of this month. The three countries have agreed to deepen security cooperation during the summit. North Korea, seeking to actively exploit the new Cold War atmosphere, is unlikely to let the summit pass quietly, especially as the South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit is expected to include critical voices toward North Korea, China, and Russia.

Major Provocation Expected Around This Month’s South Korea-U.S.-Japan Summit and Large-Scale Firepower Drills

There is also speculation that North Korea may target the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled for the end of this month. The fact that North Korea has halted provocations for over a month is analyzed as being due to the recent absence of large-scale South Korea-U.S. joint exercises. North Korea has used these joint exercises as a pretext for provocations, labeling them as hostile policies. Around the time of the March South Korea-U.S. ‘Freedom Shield’ joint exercises, North Korea conducted shows of force using various weapons, including short-range ballistic missiles, submarine-launched cruise missiles, and nuclear unmanned underwater attack vehicles. It further raised tensions by launching a solid-fuel ICBM. Provocations ceased only after the ‘Ssangryong’ joint amphibious landing exercises between the South Korean Navy and Marine Corps, which continued until early April.

However, there are expectations that North Korea may resume provocations under the pretext of the largest-ever South Korea-U.S. joint and combined firepower annihilation exercises, scheduled from the 25th of this month to the 15th of next month, marking the 70th anniversary of the South Korea-U.S. alliance. Additionally, the deployment of U.S. strategic assets such as strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs) to the Korean Peninsula is expected within this month, leading to forecasts that North Korea will provoke using weapons symbolizing its deterrence against the U.S.

In particular, there are observations that North Korea will take actions related to the military reconnaissance satellite launch, which was considered to occur ‘within April.’ Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the National Aerospace Development Administration on the 18th of last month, declared the completion of the reconnaissance satellite’s production, and ordered its launch “within the planned timeframe,” but no subsequent developments have been reported.

Some suggest that North Korea may accelerate its actions competitively, conscious of South Korea’s Nuri rocket launch scheduled for the 24th of this month. Others analyze that the period when North Korea conducted provocations such as missile launches for political purposes has passed, and that it is now moving according to its own timetable. If there is no significant military necessity, it does not engage in shows of force unnecessarily.