[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Nuclear Weapons Deployment on the Korean Peninsula Announced During Joint Exercises

At the Korea-US summit, it is expected that the 'Washington Declaration,' which includes measures to strengthen extended deterrence centered on the establishment of a new consultative body called the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), will be announced.

The Korea-US NCG appears to be modeled after NATO's Nuclear Planning Group (NPG). The NCG is expected to operate focusing on joint planning and execution related to nuclear operations between Korea and the US. It also signifies an intention to strengthen joint exercises that integrate the US's nuclear-capable strategic assets and the Republic of Korea Armed Forces' conventional assets to deter North Korean threats. In other words, it means continuing to send B-52 and B-1B bombers, nuclear-powered submarines, and aircraft carriers to the Korean Peninsula to enhance joint exercises with the Korean military. Seven countries, including the Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland, and Romania, are known to regularly participate in exercises escorting US bombers and undertake conventional air support missions.

In particular, the US has expressed its willingness to deploy strategic assets to Korea more frequently instead of permanently stationing them there. One example mentioned is allowing strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs), among the three major nuclear forces including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and long-range bombers, to make port calls in Korea.

Unprecedented Disclosure of Ohio-class SSBN Equipped with US Nuclear Warheads Deployed in Guam

The US has publicly disclosed the deployment of the Ohio-class nuclear-powered strategic submarine USS Maine (SSBN-741) in Guam. It is unusual to reveal the location of a strategic nuclear-powered submarine (SSBN) equipped with nuclear weapons.

On the 26th, the US Pacific Fleet released four photos on social media platform Twitter, announcing that the USS Maine was deployed at the Guam Naval Base.

US nuclear-powered submarines are broadly divided into strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs) and attack nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). Submarines equipped with nuclear warheads are SSBNs, while those equipped with conventional warheads are SSNs. The USS Springfield, a nuclear-powered submarine that entered the Busan operational base in February, is classified as an SSN equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Only six countries worldwide possess strategic nuclear submarines. The US has built 16 Ohio-class SSBNs since 1976 and currently operates 14. Each US SSBN carries a crew of 150. Its submerged displacement exceeds 18,000 tons, and its length reaches approximately 170 meters.

The Ohio-class SSBN is known as one of the nuclear umbrellas the US would provide to Korea in times of crisis. On November 1, 2016 (local time), when North Korea's nuclear and missile tests were in full swing, the US Navy's Ohio-class SSBN USS Pennsylvania was suddenly revealed to then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lee Sun-jin at the Guam Naval Base.

The Ohio-class SSBN is formidable because it carries the W76-2 low-yield nuclear warhead (strategic nuclear) on its submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) called 'Trident II.' In February 2020, just eight days after announcing the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, the USS Maine (SSBN-741) test-fired a Trident II missile. The Trident II is equipped with the W76-2 low-yield nuclear warhead, which has a yield of about 5-7 kilotons, a fraction of the previous 90-475 kiloton range.

Professor Moon Geun-sik of Kyonggi University's Graduate School of Political Studies said, "The US's disclosure of the SSBN's location, which it usually avoids revealing, is a warning emphasizing that it can be deployed to the Korean Peninsula at any time."

The US Strategic Command recently conducted the 'Global Thunder 23' nuclear readiness exercise. Global Thunder focuses on the three major nuclear forces: strategic bomber flights, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) drills, and SSBN readiness checks. This includes specific forces such as Minuteman ICBMs, Trident II missiles, and B-52H and B-2A bombers.

Permanent Deployment of US Strategic Assets on the Korean Peninsula Was Discussed but Resurfaced under the Current Administration

Korea and the US discussed the permanent deployment of strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula in 2017. However, this was effectively halted in 2018 as the situation shifted toward reconciliation and dialogue with the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, only to be revived under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.

In February last year, Korea and the US agreed to frequently deploy US strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula if North Korea's military provocations continued. After the summit with US President Joe Biden, President Yoon said at a press conference, "President Biden reaffirmed the US extended deterrence commitment to Korea using all available categories of defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities." He added, "The two leaders agreed to reactivate the high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) as soon as possible."

The Korea-US EDSCG, a diplomatic and defense (2+2) consultative body, was initiated during the Park Geun-hye administration but was suspended under the Moon Jae-in administration. Once the EDSCG is fully operational, US strategic assets will be frequently deployed to the Korean Peninsula in response to provocations such as North Korea's ICBM tests. The deployment of US strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula would demonstrate a strong warning and response posture toward North Korea.

In December of the same year, after the 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) held at the Pentagon in Virginia, the Korea and US defense ministers issued a joint statement saying, "We will further strengthen the alliance's capabilities, information sharing, consultation procedures, joint planning, and execution to deter and respond to North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile threats." While tactical nuclear weapons would not be redeployed on the Korean Peninsula, the alliance aimed to create a more tightly knit cooperative model similar to NATO-style nuclear sharing.

The cooperation plan between Korea and the US at that time was inspired by the US and NATO's nuclear sharing system with non-nuclear countries and included strengthening cooperation in four policy categories: information sharing, consultation during crises, joint planning, and joint execution. This cooperation institutionalizes and enhances Korea's 'voice' in crisis assessment and response, decisions on extended deterrence measures, and nuclear use decisions.

In Addition to the Four Major Strategic Assets, Nuclear-Powered Submarines Equipped with Nuclear Warheads Are Expected to Participate in Regular Exercises

Subsequently, an agreement was reached on the 'timely and coordinated deployment of strategic assets,' and the F-35A stealth fighter, aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76, 103,000 tons), and nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Annapolis (SSN-760, 6,000 tons) publicly visited the Korean Peninsula. The US's three major long-range bombers?B-52H, B-1B, and B-2?are also included. The US maintains a bomber fleet composed of 46 B-52H (Stratofortress) and 20 B-2A (Spirit) bombers. The strategic bomber B-1B (Lancer) fleet numbers about 90.

Compared to NATO-style nuclear sharing, this agreement is somewhat more in-depth but decisively differs in that there are no tactical nuclear weapons stationed on the territory. From the perspective of those supporting tactical nuclear deployment, this may be seen as insufficient.

Some view this as a compromise product aiming to achieve effects beyond tactical nuclear deployment while realistically considering that the US does not regard Korea's nuclear armament or tactical nuclear deployment as an option. It is even safer than deploying tactical nuclear weapons, which would be the primary target of enemy attacks. Joint execution covers various joint exercises and drills such as extended deterrence measure operation exercises (TTX) and the movements of strategic assets.

The problem is China's opposition. Depending on the types and operational methods of strategic assets deployed on the Korean Peninsula, not only North Korea but also China may strongly oppose, risking another diplomatic friction between Korea and China following the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) issue. In 2010, after the Cheonan sinking, China strongly opposed and blocked the entry of US nuclear-powered aircraft carriers into the Yellow Sea. This could further strain already fragile Korea-China relations caused by THAAD. There is concern about a vicious cycle of escalating tensions around the Korean Peninsula: increased pressure on North Korea leading to North Korea's advancement of nuclear and missile capabilities, strengthened Korea-US military responses, China's opposition, and new provocations by North Korea.