[ReadingScience] "Failure Means Bankruptcy"... Will Musk's Starship Succeed This Time?

Orbital Test Launch Around 11 PM KST on the 20th
'For Mars Exploration,' First Interplanetary Transport Vehicle Development Challenge

'Moon to Mars'. The largest-ever space launch vehicle, set to rewrite human history as the first interplanetary transportation system, will be launched on the night of the 20th (Korean time). The protagonist is 'Starship', created by Elon Musk's private space company SpaceX.

SpaceX will conduct the first full orbital test launch of Starship between 9:28 AM and 10:30 AM (Eastern Time) on the 20th at its own space base, 'Starbase', located in southern Texas, USA. The test launch was originally planned for the 17th but was canceled just 9 minutes before engine ignition due to a malfunction in the pressurization valve of the first-stage rocket booster (Super Heavy).

The complete Starship awaiting launch at SpaceX Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, USA. Photo by SpaceX

If the launch is successful, the Super Heavy booster will fall into the Gulf of Mexico about 8 minutes later, and the second-stage spacecraft will orbit the Earth once in low Earth orbit before crashing near Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean. The total duration is about 1 hour and 30 minutes, during which SpaceX will only check the basic performance of the launch vehicle. Key points of interest include whether it can withstand the 'Max-Q' point, where the vehicle experiences the greatest pressure, separate the stages, ignite the upper-stage engines in low Earth orbit, and safely land on the water after re-entering the atmosphere. SpaceX's pride in reusability, such as reignition and base return capability, will not be tested this time.

Reasons for Attention

Starship is the highest-spec spacecraft ever built, designed for Mars exploration and colonization, a goal Elon Musk set when founding SpaceX in 2002. It is reusable and designed to carry up to 100 people. Fundamentally, it can transport dozens of people and up to 100 tons of cargo to Mars. Another super heavy launch vehicle, NASA's Space Launch System (SLS), uses liquid hydrogen as fuel, but Starship uses liquid methane. Liquid hydrogen engines have long been used as rocket fuel but are expensive and difficult to handle. In contrast, liquid methane is cheap, easy to handle, and exists in the atmospheres of extraterrestrial planets like Mars. Above all, it boasts the largest size and performance ever. It stands 120 meters tall with a maximum diameter of 9 meters. It is larger than NASA's SLS (Block 1 standard, 98 meters), launched last November, and even the previously largest Saturn V (110 meters). Its thrust and cargo capacity are also top-notch. It can carry up to 150 tons of cargo to low Earth orbit (LEO) and has a thrust of 7,590 tons. This is much more powerful than the previous strongest SLS (cargo 105 tons, thrust about 4,000 tons). To achieve this, Starship uses 33 powerful Raptor engines (thrust 230 tons each) on the first-stage booster and 6 on the second-stage spacecraft. The first-stage booster is called 'Super Heavy Booster 7' (70 meters long), and the second-stage spacecraft is called 'Ship 24' (50 meters long).

Scientists are particularly focused on its ability to carry cargo up to 8 meters in size and a total of 150 tons to low Earth orbit. This can significantly reduce launch costs for large satellites, space telescopes, and space stations. SpaceX has already revolutionized the global launch vehicle market by drastically lowering the cost per kilogram to around $2,000 through reusable rockets Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. Especially, the ability to carry cargo up to 8 meters in size is groundbreaking. When the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) was launched in January 2021, the 6.5-meter diameter JWST had to be folded in half to fit the 4.6-meter-wide cargo bay, causing numerous difficulties. Starship is expected to greatly improve this situation. Using Starship, large space telescopes or satellites for space exploration can be carried in multiples at once, deployed in various locations, or built with inexpensive materials without worrying about weight.

The spacecraft Ship24 assembled on the upper part of Starship, the first interplanetary transportation system developed by humanity. Photo by SpaceX

The First Interplanetary Transport Vehicle

Starship will be actively used in upcoming explorations for full-scale Mars colonization. For example, it will carry equipment designed to explore and map ice buried beneath the Martian surface or to search for evidence of life on Mars. It is also expected to potentially complete NASA and the European Space Agency's (ESA) multi-year, complex Mars sample return program in a single round trip. Before Mars colonization, it will be actively used for lunar exploration. NASA plans to use Starship for the Artemis 3 lunar landing mission scheduled after 2025. The plan is to use NASA's self-developed SLS as the first stage and combine Starship as the upper-stage spacecraft. NASA intends to use the thrust of the SLS to escape Earth's gravity and then enter lunar orbit using Starship. After refueling, astronauts who have completed the landing mission will return to Earth.

After announcing his Mars colonization plan in 2015, Musk declared at the 2017 International Astronautical Congress (IAC) that he would develop an interplanetary transport system for this purpose. The plan was to develop the Big Falcon Rocket (BFR), reusable and capable of transporting up to 150 tons. However, the process was not smooth. In July last year, the Super Heavy booster exploded. In March 2021, the Starship prototype 'SN11' exploded during landing, among several other failures. There were also claims that liquid methane rockets could cause atmospheric pollution, leading to an environmental impact assessment by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Development delays caused the first orbital test flight of Starship, originally scheduled for May last year, to be postponed repeatedly and only recently set for April this year, nearly a year later. In November 2021, Musk warned employees of bankruptcy when the completion of Starship's Raptor engines was delayed.