"COVID-Level Pandemic to Return Within 10 Years," Says UK Research Institute

Significant Drop in Possibility if Vaccine Found Within 100 Days
Worst-Case Scenario: Avian Influenza Transmission Between Humans

A study has found that a deadly infectious disease on the scale of the COVID-19 virus could strike again within the next 10 years.

British medical and health research firm Airfinity predicted a 27.5% chance of a large-scale outbreak of an infectious disease with a fatality rate comparable to COVID-19 within the next decade, Bloomberg reported on the 14th (local time).

[Image source=Pixabay]

However, if an effective vaccine is released within 100 days of the virus being discovered, the likelihood of it turning into a deadly pandemic drops to 8.1%.

Airfinity warned that "a significant number of high-risk pathogens such as MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and the Zika virus currently have no officially approved vaccines or treatments," adding that "current monitoring and tracking systems make it difficult to quickly detect the emergence of new pathogens."

Airfinity cited factors such as ▲climate change ▲increased international travel ▲population growth ▲zoonotic disease threats as reasons for their prediction. However, they expect that faster vaccine development and distribution will prevent the death toll from exceeding that of COVID-19.

The worst-case scenario would be avian influenza spreading between humans. It is predicted that in the UK alone, there could be 15,000 deaths per day.

The H5N1 variant of avian influenza is currently spreading rapidly worldwide. Due to the H5N1 outbreak in 2021, 50 million poultry were culled in Europe, and 58 million in the United States.

The virus has spread to Asia as well, with Japan culling 17.4 million chickens by early this month. According to local media such as NHK, there is a shortage of land to bury the culled chickens.

Bloomberg explained, "There have not been many cases of humans infected with H5N1 yet, and there is no sign that it has mutated to a stage where human-to-human transmission is possible," but added, "It is spreading rapidly among poultry and mammals, causing the scientific community to worry about the emergence of another variant."

In February, an 11-year-old girl in Cambodia tested positive for H5N1 avian influenza and eventually died. This is the first death from avian influenza in Cambodia since 2014.