[War & Business] Diverging Dreams Surrounding the "One China" Principle

Following Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the United States and her meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, military tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait have intensified. The Chinese government deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern waters of Taiwan and conducted airstrike drills for the first time, while also carrying out large-scale military exercises encompassing the entire Taiwan Strait as a show of force.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The background to China's military provocations lies in the Chinese government's consistent diplomatic principle known as the "One China Policy." This principle holds that although China and Taiwan are currently divided, there is only one country and only one government that can represent China in the international community.

Originally, this claim was first asserted not by the current Chinese Communist Party but by the Kuomintang government of the Republic of China, which retreated to Taiwan after losing the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Later, in November 1992, the so-called "1992 Consensus" reaffirmed this principle with the major premise that "both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China."

The Chinese government has persistently upheld this principle, asserting that Taiwan is its territory and that the Taiwan Strait is its territorial waters. The Kuomintang in Taiwan views the unification subject as the Republic of China, not the Chinese Communist Party, but similarly does not regard China and Taiwan as separate countries. This stance is similar to South Korea's position, which, despite being divided from North Korea, constitutionally claims the entire North Korean territory and recognizes North Korean residents as its citizens.

However, the current ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan holds a completely different position. They reject the legitimacy claimed by both the Kuomintang's Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party's People's Republic of China as irrelevant to Taiwan. They argue that Taiwan has historically been a region separate from China and that Taiwan should be completely independent from China as a distinct country called "Taiwan," not the Republic of China.

Within Taiwan, public opinion advocating for independence is also divided into the so-called "Huadok (華獨)" faction and the "Taidok (臺獨)" faction. The Huadok faction is a conservative independence theory that supports maintaining the current separation between Taiwan as the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China, both being part of the same Chinese nation, and preserving peace.

In contrast, the Taidok faction holds that Taiwan is historically and ethnically completely separate from China, and that Taiwan should establish its identity as "Taiwan" rather than the Republic of China in the international community, pursuing independent diplomatic activities. Even Taiwan's independence movement, often lumped together as a single faction, is sharply divided over interpretations of "One China."

The United States' assertion of "Freedom of Navigation" in the Taiwan Strait and its monthly dispatch of warships under this pretext are underpinned by the Taiwan independence theory advocated by the Taidok faction. The reason the Chinese government strongly opposes the concept that Taiwan should exist as a separate island nation in the international community and that the Taiwan Strait is international waters rather than Chinese territorial waters lies here.

The differing attitudes of China, Taiwan, and the United States toward the One China principle create ambiguity regarding Taiwan's identity. This ambiguity will act as a trigger to further escalate future conflicts. In the event of an accidental localized conflict or a larger-scale war, which side will we align with among the People's Republic of China, the Republic of China, and Taiwan? A unified, bipartisan stance from Korea must be prepared in advance.