[Opinion] South Korean Readers' Nuclear Armament Must Break the Rules of the NPT Game

There are many opinions that "South Korea's independent nuclear armament theory is hollow." However, from the perspective of game theory, it is not a hollow matter.

The most attention-grabbing North Korean nuclear response recently was President Yoon Seok-yeol's mention of "own nuclear weapons." On January 11, President Yoon said, "We could deploy tactical nuclear weapons here in the Republic of Korea or even possess our own nuclear weapons." He spoke calmly but raised the intonation on "nuclear" and "could." This was to clearly convey his true intention (nuclear possession) while lowering the expression level to the possibility dimension to block backlash. This message from the president rallied public opinion. According to a Choi Jong-hyun Academy and Korea Gallup poll (January 30), 77.6% responded that "South Korea needs independent nuclear development."

In the drama Squid Game, participants competing for a prize of 45.6 billion won generally accept death as the penalty for losing. Since they voluntarily joined the game, they comply with the rules demanding their lives. This attitude of participants is called the "lusory attitude" in game theory.

South Korea's attitude, which complies with the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) regime, is increasingly resembling the lusory attitude. This is because it appears as an attitude of enduring existential threats that could lead to mutual destruction by insisting on following NPT regulations. The NPT is close to an arbitrary game rule that tolerates the nuclear monopoly of a few countries to maintain peace. North Korea threatens to attack at any time with nuclear warheads, but South Korea cannot develop nuclear weapons due to NPT rules. The alternative, the U.S. nuclear umbrella, is only a concept and vague. The concern that "even if North Korea attacks Seoul with nuclear weapons, the U.S. might hesitate to retaliate with nuclear weapons due to the risk of nuclear strikes on Guam or Los Angeles" is persuasive.

North Korea has recently fired ballistic missiles including ICBMs repeatedly over the past three months and detonated a short-range missile equipped with a simulated nuclear warhead at an altitude of 800 meters. It blatantly threatens South Korea with nuclear weapons that maximize lethality. The lusory attitude is an irrational attitude that follows arbitrary rules even to the point of sacrificing survival, so nuclear armament theory inevitably emerges domestically as a reflection and awakening against this. President Yoon's remarks came out in this context. The more North Korea engages in military adventurism, the louder this voice will become.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump's "art of the deal" is also based on game theory. According to this, participants must utilize the option most favorable to themselves and exclude the least favorable option. For South Korea, it must not give up nuclear development, which is most advantageous for security, nor accept denuclearization only for South Korea, which is the most disadvantageous. If so, it could lead to a middle ground such as "deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and joint use by South Korea and the U.S." This level would significantly enhance deterrence against North Korean nuclear weapons, but the nuclear development card must not be folded.

In the international community, the "victim blaming" theory applies. Silent and compliant victims are ignored and attacked internationally. The argument that "nuclear armament is impossible due to economic sanctions and denuclearization only for South Korea is acceptable" would make South Korea a disregarded victim. As the greatest victim of North Korean nuclear weapons, South Korea must raise its voice. The president's single remark drew deep interest overseas. Friendly public opinion has also begun to emerge, such as "Given South Korea's severely deteriorated security environment, most countries would understand if it decides to possess its own nuclear weapons" (Ramon Pardo, British professor). If the international community understands South Korea's situation, the future changes. The player who actually moves the board of the NPT game is the United States. The situation could change in any way. Nuclear armament theory is becoming a strategic approach that looks into the distant future of the country.

Heo Man-seop, Professor, Department of Liberal Education, Gangneung-Wonju National University