[War & Business] Russian Missiles Deployed in the Kuril Islands

The Bastion coastal missile defense system that the Russian military announced to have installed on Paramushir Island in the Kuril Islands. [Image source=Russian Ministry of Defense]

Last week, immediately after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's surprise visit to Ukraine, Russia revealed that it deployed various strategic assets, including missile defense systems, in the Kuril Islands region facing Japan. The Russian Ministry of Defense also boasted about significantly expanding its military forces in the eastern region.

On the surface, this move is interpreted as a sign of displeasure over Prime Minister Kishida's sudden visit to Ukraine during the summit between President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, considering the current situation on the Ukrainian front, this action is difficult to understand. At a time when even a single missile or shell is desperately needed on the eastern front of Ukraine, Russia has literally deployed a large number of medium- and long-range missiles thousands of kilometers away in the Kuril Islands.

Regardless of the situation on the Ukrainian front, Russia has continued military provocations in the Northeast Asia region since the Ukraine war began. While shielding North Korea's missile provocations, Russia has also showcased fighter jet sorties and joint military exercises with China. This appears to be a self-induced two-front war, one of the actions to be most avoided during wartime.

Regarding Russia's difficult-to-understand actions, there is an interpretation that Russia is taking considerable risks to draw more support from China. Nikkei Asia recently commented, "Russia wanted to maintain a neutral stance on Northeast Asian security issues as much as possible, but now, without China's support, it has become difficult to remain neutral."

In fact, despite prolonged sanctions against Russia, the economic support from China remains the backbone that allows Russia to continue the war while enduring massive fiscal deficits. The Russian government announced that last year's fiscal deficit was about 7 trillion rubles (approximately 120 trillion won), most of which resulted from the costs of the Ukraine war. This year, as the war of attrition with Ukraine intensifies, the fiscal deficit is expected to balloon further.

As the Russian economy increasingly becomes dependent on China, concerns are rising in the United States and Europe as well. Most of the soldiers Russia sends to the Ukrainian front are recruited from Central Asia and Siberia, exacerbating population decline in these regions. Moreover, the dependency on China along the thousands of kilometers of the China-Russia border is at a very serious level.

The weakening of Russia and its economic dependency on China are also reflected in China's active Middle East policy moves. It is no coincidence that Saudi Arabia and Iran were able to normalize diplomatic relations and even pursue a summit meeting recently through China's mediation. This was possible because Russia's influence in the Middle East, which had been deeply involved in Syria and other Middle Eastern conflicts, has rapidly diminished.

Ultimately, regardless of how the Ukraine war concludes, Russia's power is expected to shrink rapidly, while China's influence will grow economically and politically. If China continues to involve Russia as its partner in Northeast Asian issues such as the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and North Korea, there is a possibility that Russia's military provocations will intensify further.

The implications of the Russian missiles deployed in the Kuril Islands indicate that the security situation in Northeast Asia will not be smooth going forward. In a situation where all international issues are connected to Northeast Asian security, our diplomatic and military capabilities must be further strengthened.