[News in War History] 1 Million Rounds of Ammunition Depleted in Ukraine War... Resumption of Mass Production Era for 'Conventional Shells'

EU to Send 1 Million Rounds to Ukraine
Gunpowder Originates from China, Ammunition from France
Ammunition Shortage Worsens After Introduction of Machine Guns and Howitzers

Editor's Note[News in War History] is a content series created to provide multifaceted perspectives on the constantly evolving war and conflict news worldwide. Through 'News,' we first understand the current situation; through 'History,' we analyze the hidden meanings behind the news; and we also offer 'Implications' for the near future. We visit you every Sunday and plan to publish a book after 40 episodes.

As the Ukraine war has extended beyond one year, a global shortage of 'ammunition (彈藥·Ammunition)' is intensifying. The United States has supplied over one million rounds of various ammunition to Ukraine since the outbreak, but all have been exhausted. Consequently, the European Union (EU) has agreed to jointly purchase and send another one million rounds. However, this too is expected to be depleted in less than a year.

Especially in the eastern front areas such as Bakhmut, where fierce battles between Ukraine and Russia are ongoing, both sides are suffering from ammunition shortages, preventing either from achieving a decisive victory, according to analyses. Having exhausted most of the conventional ammunition previously held in stock, the U.S. has requested allied countries in Asia, as well as Europe, to supply reserve ammunition. However, amid a general reluctance to become overly involved in the war, obtaining ammunition is reportedly becoming as difficult as finding a needle in a haystack.

In January, Ukrainian forces defending the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine were replacing machine gun ammunition. Zaporizhzhia=Reuters·Yonhap News

Russia, facing difficulties in procuring military supplies for ammunition production due to sanctions, is suffering from an even more severe shortage. Following incidents where spies sent by the U.S. and Western countries were caught secretly diverting ammunition, recent reports from the U.S. government have raised concerns about China's military support, citing evidence that Russian forces have used Chinese-made ammunition.

Ultimately, as the front lines become increasingly entrenched and the conflict shifts toward a prolonged war reminiscent of trench warfare during World War I, it is no exaggeration to say that the outcome of the Ukraine war hinges on who can sustain ammunition supplies longer.

◆News: EU Agrees to Send One Million Rounds of Ammunition to Ukraine... U.S. Supplies Already Depleted

A batch of 155mm shells to be sent to Ukraine at a U.S. Army ammunition plant located in Scranton, Pennsylvania, last February. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News Agency, Scranton

First, let's look at the news regarding the ammunition support agreed upon by the EU for Ukraine. According to CNN, on the 20th (local time), EU foreign and defense ministers agreed to provide an additional one million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine over the next 12 months. Under this agreement, EU member states will jointly purchase ammunition funded by the European Peace Facility (EPF) with a total of 2 billion euros (approximately 2.8 trillion KRW) to support Ukraine.

The one million rounds represent nearly three times the cumulative ammunition of 350,000 rounds that EU member states have supplied to Ukraine so far. Previously, Ukraine had received over one million rounds of ammunition from the U.S. since February last year, but all were depleted within just over a year since the outbreak. Especially on the intensifying eastern front, up to nearly 100,000 shells were used monthly, causing what seemed like a vast amount of ammunition to vanish rapidly.

The opposing side, Russia, is also suffering from a tremendous ammunition shortage. Particularly, prolonged sanctions led by the U.S. and Western countries have made it difficult for Russian military factories to secure strategic resources necessary for ammunition production, causing even greater hardship. Suspicions have even arisen regarding the use of Chinese-made ammunition.

Earlier, Japan's Kyodo News reported that the U.S. government confirmed evidence that Russian forces used Chinese-made ammunition in eastern Ukraine. However, it remains unclear whether this Chinese ammunition was directly supplied by the Chinese government or imported indirectly through third countries. The Chinese government strongly denies these claims.

As the Ukraine war begins to consume conventional ammunition worldwide like a black hole, even the U.S. military has started to worry about ammunition shortages. Since the early 1990s, after the end of the Cold War, ammunition production facilities have sharply declined, making it difficult to suddenly increase the annual production, which had already dropped to about 14,000 rounds.

According to The New York Times (NYT), in November last year, the U.S. Congress released a report stating that the number of ammunition factories in the U.S. has plummeted from 86 in 1945, at the end of World War II, to just 5 today. Particularly, since the weapons primarily used differ between the U.S. and European countries, unifying ammunition systems is expected to take considerable time.

◆History 1: The Birthplace of Ammunition is France... 'Ammunition' Also Originates from French

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

While China is undisputedly the first country in world history to develop gunpowder, ammunition (Ammunition) is known to have originated in France. Books on the early history of cannons and firearms, including the translated work of 19th-century French antiques expert Paul Lacombe titled 'ARMS and ARMOUR IN ANTIQUITY AND THE MIDDLE AGES,' report that the word 'ammunition' was first used in France in the early 16th century.

The term 'Ammunition' is believed to derive from the French word 'La munition,' originally meaning military supplies. In the early 16th century, when matchlock guns were mainly used, bullets and gunpowder were not integrated into cartridges as they are today. Individual soldiers had to load measured amounts of gunpowder and bullets separately into their firearms, so most military supplies consisted of this ammunition.

Portrait of General Henri Gustave Delvigne, known as the inventor of the conical ammunition widely used today, in 1830.

It is said that soldiers carried wooden barrels containing bullets and measured gunpowder around their waists, which became the origin of today's magazines. At that time, firing rates were very slow, and firearms were prone to barrel explosions if fired excessively, so soldiers typically carried only up to 12 rounds each. In Europe, this ammunition was sometimes referred to as the '12 Apostles,' likening it to Jesus's twelve disciples in the Bible.

During Korea's Joseon Dynasty, matchlock units usually carried about 10 rounds per soldier per battle, and even in intense combat, it was rare to use more than six rounds. Until the early 19th century, when Napoleon Bonaparte campaigned across Europe, firearm use in battles was limited, so ammunition shortages were almost nonexistent. At that time, bullets were mainly made of lead in round shapes.

The production of conical-shaped ammunition, as used today, began in the 1830s. This ammunition was also developed in France. In 1830, Henri Gustave Delvigne, a French general and inventor, developed conical ammunition, which then spread worldwide. Subsequently, firearms rapidly advanced, and as the scale of wars expanded by country, ammunition production also increased significantly.

◆History 2: Ammunition Shortages Began with Machine Guns and Heavy Artillery in the Russo-Japanese War

The Japanese army installing heavy artillery to attack the Russian fortress during the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. [Image source=Getty Images]

Ammunition shortages in warfare became severe starting with the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. This war was the first to see the use of mass destruction weapons such as machine guns and heavy artillery, invented in the late 19th century, resulting in over ten times the amount of shells used compared to previous wars.

Initially, Russian and Japanese military leaders estimated that daily ammunition consumption would not exceed 2,000 rounds, but by mid-war, actual daily usage rose to over 20,000 rounds, causing enormous financial strain. Producing shells or importing them from other countries required massive resources, and both countries suffered serious economic damage after the war.

After World War II, with the addition of new weapons such as air combat and tanks, ammunition supply became even more challenging. In modern times, demand for anti-aircraft missiles has also increased, accelerating ammunition consumption.

Particularly, the current Ukraine war is even evaluated as involving the highest shell usage since the Korean War in June 1950. Even Ukraine, which has limited shell usage due to shortages, has conducted nearly 6,000 to 7,000 rounds of shelling daily on average, while Russian forces have fired 40,000 to 50,000 rounds per day, depleting their stockpiles in less than a year since the outbreak.

◆Implication: Concerns Over a Return to Mass Production of Conventional Ammunition

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The ammunition shortage caused by the Ukraine war has raised concerns that Europe and Western countries may return to mass production of conventional ammunition. Former Eastern Bloc countries, which had drastically reduced ammunition production under disarmament policies, are now actively resuming production.

At the end of last year, Poland's state-owned defense group PGZ announced plans to invest $1.8 billion (approximately 2.4 trillion KRW) to expand production of firearms and ammunition. Before the Ukraine war, PGZ's new investment was expected to be around $900 million, but due to the war, they have doubled their investment to significantly increase production capacity.

Czech military factories, which supplied military vehicles and weapons to the Austro-Hungarian Empire during World War I, are also greatly increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine. Notably, the Czech Republic is supplying some large-caliber artillery ammunition, such as 152mm howitzer shells and 122mm rocket shells, which the U.S. and Western European countries have not provided to Ukraine. There are forecasts that Czech arms exports this year will reach their highest level since the end of the Cold War in 1989.

The revival of defense manufacturers in Europe, the birthplace of ammunition, presents a mixed picture. There are concerns that such military expansion could potentially lead to another world war. We sincerely hope that the Ukraine war does not prolong any further.