[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Will the Ground Operations Command Commander Be Replaced?

Likely Candidate for Mid-Year Personnel Changes Due to Health Deterioration Rumors
Next Jijak Commander May Be Appointed from Korea Military Academy Classes 45 and 46

Amid ongoing military provocations by North Korea, rumors of a replacement for General Jeon Dong-jin, the Ground Operations Command (GOC) Commander, are circulating both inside and outside the military. The GOC is expected to play a role as the Combined Ground Component Command, which commands and controls combined assets between South Korea and the U.S. in connection with the future wartime operational control transfer. However, it is reported that General Jeon's health has recently deteriorated. If General Jeon steps down, four to five generals are being considered as his successor.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 21st, a military official stated, "I understand that earlier this year, Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kim Seung-gyeom discussed the issue of the GOC Commander's declining health," adding, "At that time, due to military provocations such as North Korean drones, they only discussed acting duties rather than replacement, but it seems inevitable that a replacement will occur during the general officer personnel changes in the first half of this year."

Rumors about General Jeon Dong-jin's health deterioration have been circulating since the change of command ceremony of the 1st Corps last year. General Jeon collapsed at the event and was urgently transported to a hospital, sparking rumors that a chronic illness he had during his time as corps commander had worsened. Later, at the 4th anniversary ceremony of the GOC's establishment in January, his posture was unstable, causing concern among surrounding officers. On the first day of the ROK-U.S. combined exercise "Freedom Shield (FS)" on the 13th, he reportedly showed abnormal symptoms during a video conference system (VCT) attended by two U.S. military officers, prompting the video camera to urgently switch to another screen.

Due to these issues, there are expectations within the military that he might be replaced before completing even one year of his term. If the GOC Commander is replaced, it is highly likely that the next commander will come from the 45th or 46th class of the Korea Military Academy (KMA).

The reason the 45th class is being considered is that they are contemporaries of the former GOC Commander (KMA 45th class). To maintain a stable command structure, it is possible to appoint a promoted officer from the same class. The 45th class includes Lieutenant General Yeo Woon-tae, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army; Lieutenant General Lee Jeong-ung, Commander of the Missile Strategy Command; Lieutenant General Jang Se-jun, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency; and Lieutenant General Kwon Young-ho, Superintendent of the Korea Military Academy.

Lieutenant General Yeo, from Iksan, Jeonbuk, has held division commander positions twice, commanding the 53rd and 22nd Divisions. He rose to the key post of 8th Corps Commander, responsible for the frontline eastern sector and coastal defense, serving for six months before moving to the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army position. Lieutenant General Yeo has mainly served in personnel-related roles, including Deputy Director and Director of the Personnel Department at Army Headquarters.

Lieutenant General Lee Jeong-ung, from Busan, Commander of the Missile Strategy Command, is recognized as a leading figure in operations, strategic planning, and countering North Korea's asymmetric capabilities within the military. He is also known for maintaining close relationships with key U.S. military personnel, making him a figure expected to strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance.

Besides them, Lieutenant General Jang Se-jun, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and Lieutenant General Kwon Young-ho, Superintendent of the Korea Military Academy, are also mentioned. However, Lieutenant General Jang is nearing retirement after being promoted to lieutenant general on a fixed-term basis, and Lieutenant General Kwon has not yet completed half of his term as superintendent. Lieutenant General Kang Geon-jak, Commander of the Education and Training Command, is also mentioned but is considered a figure from the Moon Jae-in administration and effectively sidelined.

Among the 46th class are Lieutenant General Lee Gyu-jun (Commander of the 5th Corps), Lieutenant General Park An-su (Commander of the 8th Corps), Lieutenant General Kang Shin-cheol (Chief of Operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff), and Lieutenant General Lee Doo-hee (Deputy Commander of the GOC).

Lieutenant General Lee Gyu-jun has been evaluated as providing stable command following the recent integration of the 6th Corps. Lieutenant General Park, known as an operations expert, has extensive field command experience, having served as commander of the 39th Division, director of operations planning at the GOC, and chief of staff at the 2nd Operations Command. However, his term as corps commander, typically 18 months, will not be completed, making his future uncertain. Lieutenant General Kang Shin-cheol served as Defense Reform Secretary and Security and Defense Strategy Secretary during the Moon Jae-in administration. Although promoted to lieutenant general, he received a "written warning" last December after effectively failing in the operation to counter North Korean drones. Lieutenant General Lee Doo-hee, an artillery officer, currently serves as the GOC Deputy Commander, a position considered sidelined, making his promotion unlikely. Meanwhile, Lieutenant General Jang Gwang-seon, Commander of the 2nd Corps (KMA 25th class), and Lieutenant General Lee Gyu-jun, Commander of the 5th Corps (KMA 46th class), will complete their corps commander terms in the first half of this year, and two lieutenant general-level replacements are expected to be announced.

There are also cautious rumors about replacing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kim Seung-gyeom, who was appointed as the highest-ranking military officer in July last year. Ten days after Chairman Kim visited the air defense positions of the 3rd Infantry Division in northern Gyeonggi Province on December 16 last year to emphasize drone air defense readiness, he became the person held fully responsible for the failure of the drone shootdown operation. The military deployed fighter jets, attack helicopters, and light attack aircraft, firing over 100 rounds from helicopter 20mm cannons in an attempt to shoot down the drone but failed. Consequently, opposition party members of the National Defense Committee in the National Assembly reportedly insist that Chairman Kim, who oversees air defense operations, must be held accountable.