Despite Cheon Ayongin's Defeat, Unstoppable Lee Jun-seok: Does He Have a Hidden Card?

Skeptical Outlook on People Power Party Nomination
"Words to Regret in a Few Months" Claimed
Interpretation of 'Founding a Party' Ahead of General Election with Yoo Seung-min

All members of the 'Cheon-A-Yong-In (Cheon Haram, Heo Eun-ah, Kim Yong-tae, Lee Gi-in)' faction, classified as supporters of Lee Jun-seok, failed to enter the People Power Party leadership, casting a shadow over the future of former leader Lee Jun-seok.

The party leadership, composed of the Pro-Yoon (Pro-Yoon Seok-yeol) faction, has been collectively attacking former leader Lee after the election. This is why there is a forecast that it will be difficult for Lee to receive a nomination from the People Power Party for next year's general election.

However, former leader Lee is showing an unrestrained political move despite the complete defeat of the Lee Jun-seok faction. After the party convention results were announced on the 8th, Lee posted on Facebook, "I will strive harder for a better tomorrow than today." On the 12th, he appeared in an interview on KBS News 9.

In the interview, Lee hinted at the possibility of a different development regarding the pessimistic outlook on next year's general election nomination, saying, "I think these are words that will be regretted a few months later," and "Although there are many predictions ahead of the big event of the general election, they are often meaningless until about 3 to 4 months before."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

He mentioned, "I was with the Bareunmirae Party before the last general election. Then I was in the New Conservative Party, and even then there were talks that I wouldn't get a nomination. But later, I eventually ran in the 21st general election and achieved the highest vote share ever in my constituency."

Former leader Lee left the Saenuri Party during the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, went through the Bareun Party, Bareunmirae Party, and New Conservative Party, and then rejoined the United Future Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party). Later, in the 2020 21st general election, he ran as a United Future Party candidate in Nowon-byeong, Seoul, receiving 44.3% of the vote. The election result was a victory for Kim Seong-hwan of the Democratic Party of Korea, who obtained 53.1%.

This was Lee's third time running for a National Assembly seat. He also ran in Nowon-byeong in the 2016 20th general election and the 2018 by-election, receiving 31.3% and 27.2% of the vote respectively, but lost both times. In other words, although he lost all three National Assembly elections he contested, his vote share steadily increased.

In this party convention as well, former leader Lee focused more on the vote share than the defeat of Cheon-A-Yong-In. He said, "Candidate Cheon Haram received 15%, and candidate Lee Gi-in received 18%. If they had a bit more recognition, the numbers would have been higher," adding, "I think our candidates performed so well that they achieved this level of results." This interpretation is completely different from the analysis that the party convention results reflected the party members' will to 'support President Yoon Seok-yeol and the Pro-Yoon faction.'

Lee also said, "The People Power Party must know that there is no possibility of winning the general election except by regaining the support of the younger generation," and "It is a very difficult task to deny everything Lee Jun-seok has done and then try to achieve (a general election victory)." This is interpreted as meaning that without him representing the younger generation, winning the general election is impossible.

Some interpret that former leader Lee hinted at the possibility of political realignment, such as founding a new party ahead of the general election. The confidence he showed regarding the nomination issue despite the Pro-Yoon faction's control of the party is analyzed as having another strategic intention.

Former National Intelligence Service Director Park Ji-won predicted in an interview with YTN's 'News King Park Ji-hoon' that "From long experience in politics, whenever a president who controls the party carries out a nomination massacre, a new party is founded each time," and "Lee Jun-seok and Yoo Seung-min, who were ruthlessly cut down, will unite and resist."

Former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min declared he would not run as moves to check him, such as revising the '100% party member vote' rule, intensified ahead of the party convention. At that time, Yoo posted on Facebook, "I will endure and wait for the right time. I will pioneer a new path looking only at public sentiment." Some interpreted the 'new path' Yoo mentioned as meaning the founding of a new party.