[Reading Science] 'Cancer, the Leading Cause of Death,' Global Crisis of 'Caregiving Bankruptcy'

German Research Team Publishes Paper in Journal of the American Medical Association
Total Cost from 2020 to 2050 Reaches $25.2 Trillion
Comparable to Global Annual Domestic Tax Revenue, Exceeds China's Export Value

The most fatal disease for modern people is cancer. However, an analysis has emerged predicting that over the next 30 years, the economic cost that countries around the world will have to bear due to cancer will reach approximately $25.2 trillion (about 33,180 trillion KRW). This amount is similar to the annual global domestic tax revenue during the same period and far exceeds the total exports of China, the largest economy.

The journal 'JAMA Oncology,' published by the American Medical Association, last month featured a paper by a research team from the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health in Germany. The paper analyzed the economic costs of 29 types of cancer in 204 countries worldwide from 2020 to 2050, predicting these figures.

Respiratory cancers, including those of the trachea, bronchus, and lungs, are predicted to account for about 15.4% of the total, making them the "most expensive cancers." This is followed by colon and rectal cancers at 10.9%, breast cancer at 7.7%, liver cancer at 6.5%, and hematologic cancers (leukemia) at 6.5%. The total cost burden of these five major cancers is expected to reach about $12 trillion (approximately 15,800 trillion KRW) by 2050, accounting for nearly half of the total. Although global cancer treatment costs have been estimated before, this study is significant in that it specifically identified the costs caused by individual cancers.

The research team collected economic and health data on costs caused by cancer from countries worldwide and segmented the data by country and cancer type to model future costs. Notably, the team included not only direct costs related to cancer treatment but also indirect economic effects such as stopping savings and quitting jobs during the treatment process after diagnosis. As a result, if global health authorities do not make additional investments in cancer research and prevention, it is predicted that over the next 30 years, the world economy will incur costs of $25.2 trillion due to medical expenses, labor losses, and reduced savings. This amount far exceeds the total value of all goods and services China exports annually and is expected to match the total annual domestic tax revenue of all countries worldwide over the next 30 years.

Additionally, although three-quarters of cancer deaths occur in middle- and low-income countries like China, the damage to high-income countries is also expected to be significant. More than half of the economic losses due to cancer are predicted to occur in high-income countries such as the United States. In other words, China accounts for a large proportion of global cancer deaths due to its large population, while the U.S., despite having fewer deaths due to advanced medical technology, experiences relatively greater economic losses because of high medical costs.

The study also pointed out regional differences by cancer type. Breast and cervical cancers cause the greatest economic damage in sub-Saharan African countries. In contrast, high-income countries are expected to have higher economic expenditures on cancers influenced by population aging, such as lung cancer.

The research team stated, "In countries like China where lung cancer is common, policymakers can reduce deaths and economic damage by implementing smoking cessation policies," adding, "Preventive efforts such as vaccination against human papillomavirus, which causes cervical cancer, and regular cancer screenings can reduce the incidence of costly cancer diseases."