[Beijing Diary] The 'Low Birthrate' Concern We Had 5 Years Ago

The Lianghui (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), which marks the launch of Chinese President Xi Jinping's third term in power, opened on the 4th. The Lianghui is China's largest political event where high-ranking official appointments, future national policy directions, and specifically this year's economic growth targets are announced one after another. It is especially significant because representatives of the National People's Congress (NPC) from across the country bring forward various proposals and discuss them all in one place.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

One of the notable agenda items at this year's Lianghui is the 'solution to low birth rates.' The most frequently highlighted topic in the media ahead of the opening was also the call for solutions to low birth rates. Zhao Dongling, an NPC representative, advocated for the implementation of comprehensive free education for children born after 2024. Since many families hesitate to have children due to the burden of high education costs, this proposal aims to provide a definite benefit by expanding free education. There was also a suggestion to extend childbirth allowances not only to women working in regular employment but also to self-employed and rural women.

Additionally, there were calls for the complete abolition of the three-child policy and for allowing birth registration without marriage registration so that children born out of wedlock can receive the same treatment as those of married women. The Chinese government had previously prohibited birth registration for unmarried women. In fact, some regions such as Sichuan Province have not only lifted birth restrictions but also adapted their social systems to accommodate children born to unmarried parents.

An interesting fact is that voices calling for solutions to low birth rates were raised at the Lianghui five years ago in 2018 as well. If this year's Lianghui marks the launch of the third term, 2018 was the start of the second term, in other words, President Xi's re-election. It was also a tense period when discussions about his long-term leadership constitutional amendment were underway. At that time, several attending representatives argued that the one-child policy should not only be abolished (which happened in 2016) but that all Chinese couples should be allowed to have up to three children. Ultimately, the event concluded without strong or groundbreaking measures, leading to the current situation.

China has not taken the low birth rate issue very seriously. It enjoyed rapid economic growth due to the demographic dividend from a large working-age population but neglected the warning signs of the declining birth rate, a gray rhino risk, and failed to heed the alarms.

In fact, even if all the aforementioned solutions were implemented immediately, it is uncertain whether young people of childbearing age would decide to have children. China's low birth rate, like South Korea's, is the result of very complex and intertwined issues. Serious wealth disparity and urban-rural gaps, the hukou system that ties identity to birthplace, education costs driven by excessive academic competition, employment sluggishness among people in their 20s and 30s, and a long-term low-growth economic trend are all underlying factors that cannot be resolved quickly.

The Lianghui in China is often criticized as a 'rubber stamp' or 'show of hands.' It is essentially a formal political event that approves matters already decided in advance by the Communist Party's top leadership. How seriously President Xi, who has succeeded in securing a third term, and his leadership team will address the low birth rate issue through the Lianghui and whether they can present meaningful solutions remains to be seen. For China, which has already entered a negative population growth phase far ahead of international organizations' and internal forecasts, there seems to be no room to treat birth rate issues as a 'political show' topic.