North Korea's 7th Nuclear Test Possibility... Will the 'Independent Nuclear Armament Theory' Resurface?

Ukraine abandons nuclear armament trusting memorandum... War ensues
Hong: "Policy of nuclear balance between South and North needed, not denuclearization"
Kwon Young-se: "NPT violations may lead to retaliation"

Amid concerns over North Korea's potential seventh nuclear test, Daegu Mayor Hong Jun-pyo has once again raised the issue of nuclear armament. However, South Korea's independent nuclear armament is considered inappropriate as it would be in direct violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is expected to trigger international sanctions.

On the 27th, Mayor Hong stated on his Facebook, citing the case of Ukraine, that "Our way to survive is not uncertain extended deterrence strategies or the impossible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but a policy of nuclear balance between the North and South." Ukraine was once the world's third-largest nuclear power but gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum and the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Act.

North Korea conducted a strategic cruise missile "Hwasal-2" type launch training into the East Sea in the early morning of the 23rd around Kimchaek City, North Hamgyong Province, according to Korean Central News Agency on the 24th. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

The Budapest Memorandum involved Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus receiving security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia in exchange for dismantling their nuclear arsenals. The Nunn-Lugar Act provided these three countries with support from Western nations for the technology and costs necessary for nuclear disarmament in return for their renunciation of nuclear weapons.

However, Russia rendered the Budapest Memorandum meaningless. Although it promised security guarantees to Ukraine, it forcibly annexed Crimea in 2014 and invaded Ukraine in February 2022, becoming a party that undermined Ukraine's security. Mayor Hong emphasized, "Due to Russia's invasion, which was a party to the security guarantees, Ukraine is now struggling amidst the ruins of war," and raised his voice, "If Ukraine had possessed powerful nuclear weapons, would Russia have dared to invade?"

Mayor Hong also viewed the possibility of North Korea abandoning its nuclear weapons as slim, since the current North Korean regime would find it difficult to survive without them. He said, "Libya's Gaddafi gave up nuclear development under the assurance of regime survival from the United States, but his regime collapsed due to internal upheaval," adding, "The moment North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons, the Kim Jong-un regime would collapse like Libya's, so with diplomatic pressure already losing its meaning, can North Korea really give up its nuclear weapons?"

This is not the first time Mayor Hong has raised the issue of 'independent nuclear armament.' In January, he also stated on his Facebook, "War between nuclear-armed countries is impossible," and claimed, "We possess a lot of nuclear material, nuclear development technology, and money. If we decide, we can have warheads surpassing North Korea's nuclear weapons in a short period."

Recently, President Yoon Suk-yeol also mentioned the possibility of 'independent nuclear armament.' On the 11th of last month, during a briefing by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense, President Yoon said, "If the North Korean nuclear threat becomes more serious, we might deploy tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea or possess our own nuclear weapons," adding, "If that happens, our scientific technology could enable us to have nuclear weapons in a shorter time."

Unification Minister Kwon Young-se attended the 2023 Unification Ministry Policy Advisory Committee plenary meeting held at the Government Seoul Office Building on the 22nd, the first meeting in three years since COVID-19, and delivered a greeting. Photo by Yonhap News

The ongoing discussion about nuclear armament has been fueled by observations that North Korea may proceed with its seventh nuclear test. On the 27th, Unification Minister Kwon Young-se appeared on CBS Radio's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' and said, "We are monitoring the possibility of a seventh nuclear test," adding, "Currently, the tunnels at Punggye-ri, specifically tunnels 3 and 4, are being continuously maintained in a well-prepared state."

He continued, "On one hand, it could be a show of force to say, 'Look, we are preparing this, so feel threatened,' but I think it is much more necessary to prepare for the actual possibility," while also noting, "There are no signs yet such as increased activity or sealing of tunnels."

Regarding the 'nuclear armament theory,' he said, "If we pursue nuclear armament, we could face various retaliations related to the NPT, so I think it is undesirable," adding, "The President has actually mentioned this direction several times, but what is needed is stronger nuclear cooperation with the United States, such as extended deterrence or a nuclear umbrella, rather than us directly developing nuclear weapons or relocating U.S. nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula. That is not something to consider at this time."