Biden's Trip to Ukraine: 3 Strategic Cards Played

Warning to Russian President Putin
Strengthening Western Alliance Including the US
Highlighting Leadership Ahead of President Biden's Reelection

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] "Putin has failed. One year after the outbreak of war, Kyiv still stands. Ukraine still stands. Democracy still stands." U.S. President Joe Biden's surprise visit to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, on the 20th (local time), just days before the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is interpreted as a strategic move aimed at multiple targets.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

◆"America is here" A warning to Putin

First, it is a 'strong warning' sent to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who decided on the invasion a year ago, as the war enters a prolonged phase. It is extremely rare for a sitting U.S. president to visit a 'war zone' where U.S. or allied forces do not control the situation. Especially at this event, President Biden unveiled a new $500 million (about 640 billion KRW) military aid package for Ukraine and announced additional sanctions against Russia, clearly signaling that the West will never back down from Russia as its leader.

This message was repeatedly confirmed in the conversations between President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv that day. Wearing a blue and yellow diagonal striped tie symbolizing the Ukrainian flag, President Biden emphasized, "Putin's war of conquest is failing," and stressed that Putin's belief that Ukraine is weak and the West is divided is completely wrong. He added, "We stand here together."

After the meeting at the Mariinsky Palace, the two leaders stood side by side before the press and recalled their phone call on the night of February 24, about a year ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine. President Biden said, "You said you heard explosions around you. I will never forget that," and mentioned, "The world is about to change." In a statement released as he left Kyiv, he also reaffirmed "an unwavering and unyielding commitment to Ukraine's democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity" after meeting President Zelenskyy.

The new military aid plan President Biden delivered to President Zelenskyy that day mainly includes additional equipment such as shells, anti-armor systems, and air defense radars to respond to Russian missile attacks. Along with this, President Biden also confirmed that additional sanctions against Russia would be announced within this week.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyzed, "Putin is expected to continue the Ukraine war phase until Western countries lose patience and stop support. Amid this, the U.S. sent a message that it will firmly support Ukraine even if it takes years." There have been speculations that President Putin might launch a major offensive by the Russian military around the first anniversary of the war. Putin is also scheduled to deliver a State of the Nation address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow the next day.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

◆Strengthening the Western united front... Highlighting leadership ahead of re-election bid

This surprise visit is expected to have the effect of strengthening solidarity among Western allies, who are growing weary due to the prolonged war. As the war drags on, differences in views regarding additional support and peace settlement plans are gradually emerging among Western countries. The Washington Post (WP) noted, "Biden's visit to Kyiv took place amid many questions about how long global support for Ukraine and the cohesion of the U.S.-led alliance will last."

With President Biden taking the lead in declaring strong support policies, it is expected to preemptively prevent potential cracks within the Western camp and strengthen unity. President Biden's statement emphasizing, "Over the past year, the U.S. has built an unprecedented coalition for military, economic, and humanitarian support with countries spanning from the Atlantic to the Pacific. This support will continue," is also interpreted as a message to allies worldwide. As the senior member of the West, the U.S. is asking allies to join in since it has taken the lead in providing support.

Major foreign media particularly highlight the significance of President Biden risking danger to set foot directly on Kyiv soil, even though visiting Warsaw, Poland, a neighboring country to Ukraine, on the first anniversary of the war could have conveyed the same determination. The U.S. administration confirmed that this visit was meticulously planned in secret over several months and only received final approval on the 17th.

Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Advisor, said in a video briefing immediately after President Biden's departure for Ukraine, "President Biden's visit to Kyiv is historic and unprecedented." He added, "President Biden believed it was important to visit despite the risks. He wanted to deliver a clear and unmistakable message about America's continued support for Ukraine." However, Sullivan also noted that the U.S. informed Russia of President Biden's visit to Ukraine a few hours before departure to avoid conflict with Russia.

President Biden is also scheduled to meet with allied leaders, including Polish President Andrzej Duda, in Poland. In his speech in Warsaw, he will reiterate the message that the U.S. will stand with Ukraine as long as necessary.

Additionally, for President Biden, who must decide on his 2024 re-election bid, this visit can serve as an opportunity to remind the American public of the need to support Ukraine and highlight his leadership. Notably, the day he set foot on Kyiv soil was also the U.S. federal holiday 'Presidents' Day.' According to an AP-NORC survey of American adults, public support for providing weapons to Ukraine has weakened from 60% in May to 48% recently. Even within the Republican Party, which controls the U.S. House majority, there have been repeated statements that "we can no longer give a blank check to Ukraine."