US Geological Survey: "Turkey May Experience Another Strong Earthquake"... Neighboring Countries Also Concerned

Tsunami Concerns for Egypt and Other Mediterranean Coastal Countries
Fault Zone Instability Continues... Additional Aftershocks Expected

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the earthquake damage in T?rkiye (Turkey) and Syria continues to grow, concerns are being raised that aftershocks of magnitude 7.8 or higher could occur again. Surrounding Middle Eastern countries along the Mediterranean coast, including Egypt, are also increasingly worried about secondary damage such as earthquakes and tsunamis.

According to CNN on the 13th (local time), the United States Geological Survey (USGS) predicted in a report released on the 11th that there is a possibility of another strong earthquake occurring in T?rkiye. The USGS presented three scenarios for the future outlook of the earthquake situation in T?rkiye. The first scenario is that no aftershocks of magnitude 7.0 or higher will occur, and moderate earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 to 6.0 will continue while the frequency of aftershocks decreases. The probability of this scenario occurring was estimated to be about 90%, the highest among the three.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The second scenario is that aftershocks exceeding magnitude 7.0, although weaker than the mainshock of magnitude 7.8, will occur additionally. Regarding this, the USGS stated, "The possibility is about 10%, a low scenario," but warned, "If this happens, it could affect the mainshock damage area again and activate additional aftershock frequency."

The third and worst-case scenario is the occurrence of an earthquake equal to or stronger than magnitude 7.8. Although the probability is around 1%, which is very low, it could cause additional damage not only to the current affected areas but also to adjacent regions.

In the report released that day, the USGS raised the probability that the combined earthquake death toll in T?rkiye and Syria would exceed 100,000 to 26%, up by 2 percentage points. The estimated economic loss in T?rkiye was also raised from a maximum of 6% to 10% of GDP. The USGS stated, "Large aftershocks can cause additional damage to already weakened or poorly constructed structures," and predicted, "Aftershocks may continue for several months even if their frequency decreases."

Meanwhile, according to Saudi Arabian media Arab News, concerns about tsunamis are growing in neighboring countries adjacent to the Mediterranean, including Egypt, T?rkiye, and Syria. On the day the T?rkiye earthquake occurred, Egyptian authorities were on high alert for aftershocks, even issuing and then canceling a nationwide tsunami warning.