Another COVID Surge Due to Lunar New Year Impact... "Manage Like the Flu?" Experts Are Angry (Comprehensive)

[Asia Economy Reporter Byeon Seon-jin] Following the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday, the declining trend of COVID-19 confirmed cases has reversed and started to increase again. Infectious disease experts and health authorities view this as a temporary rebound effect due to the holiday, and expect the downward trend of the winter wave to continue. While the COVID-19 fatality rate has significantly dropped, the number of confirmed cases fluctuates, leading some to argue that COVID-19 should be managed like the flu.

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According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) on the 28th, as of midnight, the number of new COVID-19 confirmed cases was recorded at 31,711. Although this is 3,385 fewer than the previous day (35,096), when testing surged after the Lunar New Year holiday, it is 4,303 more than a week earlier on the 20th (27,408). This marks two consecutive days of increase following the first rise in confirmed cases in 30 days compared to a week ago. Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital said, "Since the winter wave is in a declining phase, the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday will not be significant," but added, "The dominant Omicron variant is soon shifting from BA.5 to BN.1, and since one in five confirmed cases is a reinfection, there is a possibility of an increase again around late February to early March." The detection rate of BN.1 in the third week of January (15?21) was 46.3%, up 7.1 percentage points from the previous week (39.2%), while the detection rate of the previously dominant BA.5 dropped to 22.0%. The estimated reinfection case rate in the second week of January (8?14) was 21.48%, the highest since the outbreak began in February 2020. Coupled with the indoor mask-wearing mandate changing to a recommendation on the 30th, confirmed cases may rise again.

Now in its fourth year since the onset of COVID-19, with the epidemic named up to the '7th wave,' there are calls to manage it at the level of the flu. The COVID-19 fatality rate, which initially recorded around 2%, has dropped to 0.08% as of the first week of January due to vaccination and antibody acquisition. COVID-19, which was once classified as a first-class legally designated infectious disease, was downgraded to second-class in April last year, and there are proposals to manage it as a fourth-class disease, the same level as the flu. For second-class diseases, reporting within 24 hours and mandatory isolation periods are required, whereas fourth-class diseases require reporting within seven days and isolation is only recommended.

The World Health Organization (WHO) will hold a meeting on the 27th to decide whether to maintain the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), first declared in January 2020. If WHO lifts the emergency status, health authorities will adjust the domestic COVID-19 crisis level from the current 'serious' stage to 'alert' or 'caution.' Authorities believe that to manage COVID-19 at the flu level, key indicators such as an average daily death toll of 10?20 or fewer, weekly deaths of 50?100 or fewer, and a fatality rate of 0.05?0.1% must be met.

Experts say that based on current health indicators, COVID-19 should not be compared to the flu. Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Gil Medical Center said, "COVID-19 is more than ten times more transmissible than the flu, and oral antiviral treatments are over ten times more expensive than flu medications," adding, "While the flu is seasonal, COVID-19 still produces tens of thousands of confirmed cases daily even with mask-wearing, and causes at least 20 deaths per day. The argument to manage it at the flu level is mostly made by those who do not prioritize protecting the lives of the public." Professor Kim Woo-joo said, "COVID-19 still has a transmission period of seven days, and managing it like the flu means that COVID patients and cancer patients could be in the same hospital wards in general hospitals," emphasizing, "This is not a claim based on scientific disease control."