[70th Anniversary of the Armistice]④ New Cold War Era... Complex Equation of Inter-Korean Diplomacy, What Is the Solution?

'Korean-style' Indo-Pacific Strategy Declares 'Inclusion of China' but
Leverage to Resolve North Korea Issue Becomes Difficult
Close US-Japan-Korea Ties Threaten Korea-China Relations, Pragmatic Diplomacy Needed

Editor's NoteIn 2023, North Korea began the new year with ballistic missile launches. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the armistice and the South Korea-US alliance, but the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is responding to North Korea's repeated military provocations, such as missile test launches and drone airspace intrusions, with a "peace through strength" approach characterized by "retaliation and reprisal." Amid ongoing intense standoffs between the two Koreas, this article analyzes new changes on the Korean Peninsula intertwined with the subtle diplomatic situations between South Korea-China and US-China.

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] "'The Korean Peninsula' will not be confined within a geopolitical framework." (January 11, Foreign Minister Park Jin)

In 2023, marking the 70th anniversary of the armistice, the government designated this year as the inaugural year for implementing the "Indo-Pacific (hereafter Indo-Pacific) Strategy." The axis of South Korean diplomacy has shifted from "Northeast Asia" to the "Indo-Pacific." The government evaluated the announcement of the Indo-Pacific strategy as elevating national prestige and broadening diplomatic horizons. The Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy encompasses Japan, India, ASEAN countries geographically surrounding China, and extends as far as the Western Pacific region in Europe.

The Indo-Pacific strategy is South Korea's first comprehensive regional diplomatic strategy. It contrasts with previous initiatives such as the "Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative" (2013, Park Geun-hye administration) and the "Northeast Asia Plus Responsible Community Initiative" (2017, Moon Jae-in administration). The plan is to move beyond South Korea's continental-centered diplomacy limited to the four neighboring countries to resolve North Korea issues, and realize national interests expanded around maritime axes.

The problem is that the Indo-Pacific strategy itself sharpens the conflict structure between the US and China, potentially deepening the deadlock in inter-Korean relations by forming a new Cold War structure. The Indo-Pacific strategy is an extension of the Asia-Pacific strategy. It originated with the purpose of US containment of China and inherently carries sensitivities. The renaming of the Hawaii Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command in 2018 made this explicit. Caught in the confrontation between the US and China, the space for discussions related to the peace regime, which has been deadlocked since the collapse of the Hanoi North Korea-US summit in 2019, inevitably shrinks.

New Cold War Era, US-Centered Value Diplomacy Emerges Prominently

Past South Korean governments pursued diplomatic policies aimed at overcoming the Northeast Asian Cold War structure involving the US, China, Japan, and Russia to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. However, in the recent international order, strategic competition between the US and China has intensified, and conflicts between blocs have escalated due to the Ukraine war and other factors. Previously, it was ideological competition. Now, countries such as China, Russia, and North Korea are regarded as part of the communist bloc and authoritarian camp, and "value diplomacy" centered on the US-led new alliance network has come to the forefront.

Amid these changes, South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy sets a policy to move beyond a paradigm focused solely on inter-Korean issues and engage in value-based solidarity across the Indo-Pacific region. However, the framework encompassing these changes complicates setting relations with North Korea, China, and Russia, making it difficult to find leverage to resolve inter-Korean issues. Senior Research Fellow Cho Han-beom of the Korea Institute for National Unification said, "The Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, and Atlantic Ocean are common living spaces, but the newly created concept of the Indo-Pacific inevitably reveals an intention to geopolitically encircle and isolate China, and within this structure, the priority for improving inter-Korean relations may be pushed back."

For this reason, our government prefixed "Korean version" to the Indo-Pacific strategy. China was explicitly named as a major cooperative country to seek balance between the US and China. The strategy also emphasized "inclusiveness" that does not target or exclude any specific country. Including Europe and Africa, which are not typically considered part of the Indo-Pacific region, encompassing almost the entire world except for the Middle East, Central Asia, and West Africa, is part of this approach. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has maintained communication with China during the strategy formulation process, taking into account China's concerns comprehensively.

US Indo-Pacific Strategy vs. China's Belt and Road Initiative: Strengthening US-China Rivalry

The diplomatic equation for peace on the Korean Peninsula is expected to become increasingly complex. Cooperation with China is essential to address urgent issues such as North Korea's military provocations and economic crisis. China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has played a de facto "backer" role by opposing sanctions against North Korea despite North Korea's repeated provocations that have drawn international condemnation. The deepening of the new Cold War structure also presents challenges as the interests of the six-party talks participants for North Korean denuclearization diverge. The confrontation between South Korea-US-Japan and North Korea-China-Russia may further harden, making it difficult to set a peace agenda.

In particular, this conflict is expected to subside after China's Xi Jinping's third-term inauguration and the US midterm elections this year but reignite starting with the 2024 US presidential election. The Korean Peninsula could see a resurgence of tensions to the level of localized conflicts similar to those in 2010. Above all, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's diplomatic policy direction, focusing on "normalization" rather than "development" of inter-Korean relations, is expected to heighten tensions further. The interpretation is that tension management, rather than dialogue, will remain the main task.

Professor Kim Jun-hyung of Handong Global University (former president of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy) said, "The Indo-Pacific strategy is essentially a coalition of maritime powers, but since South Korea is a continental country allied with the US, becoming hostile to continental countries is not beneficial." He added, "In this context, the current government is moving toward a hardline stance rather than peace or armistice, so the deadlock with continued North Korean provocations and nuclear armament could persist throughout the Yoon administration's five-year term."

Close South Korea-US-Japan Ties through Indo-Pacific Strategy Threaten South Korea-China Relations... Need for Pragmatic Diplomacy

Experts acknowledge the necessity of the Indo-Pacific strategy but diagnose that diplomatic pragmatism should be pursued by balancing relations with China. Jeong Seong-sang, head of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, said, "The Indo-Pacific strategy does not consider China a threat and emphasizes 'inclusiveness' and 'openness,' so it somewhat blends the Moon Jae-in administration's 'New Southern Policy' and the US's Indo-Pacific strategy." He added, "However, since this does not mean abandoning or reducing economic cooperation with China, close communication between our government and China is necessary."

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, said, "There may be criticism about whether peace through the Indo-Pacific strategy is possible without even maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula." He emphasized, "Efforts are needed to indirectly bring peace to Northeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, starting with peace on the Korean Peninsula." Yang particularly noted, "The Indo-Pacific strategy may appear as South Korea aligning with the US and Japan to contain China, so we must carefully consider how this benefits our national interests, including economic interests."