Discussion on Adjusting Indoor Mask Mandate to Begin Next Week... Advisory Committee on the 17th

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] The quarantine authorities will resume discussions next week on adjusting the indoor mask-wearing mandate.

According to quarantine authorities on the 11th, the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, an expert advisory body of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) for COVID-19, will hold a meeting on the 17th to discuss plans and timing for adjusting the indoor mask mandate.

An official from the advisory committee said, "We plan to hold a meeting on the 17th to discuss the adjustment plan for the indoor mask mandate. However, the committee may not necessarily finalize an opinion at the meeting. Although the situation in Korea has stabilized considerably, we will have thorough discussions given the variable situation in China."

If the advisory committee reaches a consolidated opinion during the meeting, the government may hold a CDSCH meeting on the 19th or 20th, before the Lunar New Year holiday, to decide on whether and when to adjust the mandate.

An official from the authorities said, "We will comprehensively consider the epidemic situation in China and the domestic inflow situation to decide whether to adjust the mandate," adding, "The CDSCH decision could be made either before or after the Lunar New Year holiday."

He added, "The domestic situation is stable, with a significant decrease in confirmed cases over the past few days, but the situation in China remains a variable. A final decision on adjustment could be made before the Lunar New Year holiday, but depending on the situation in China, we may first receive the advisory committee's opinion and continue discussions after the holiday."

The number of new COVID-19 cases has been declining for two consecutive weeks. The average daily new cases in the first week of January (1st to 7th) were 59,239, down 9.6% from the previous week (4th week of December). The newly reported cases on the day were 54,343, a decrease of about 24,000 compared to a week earlier. This is the lowest number recorded on a Wednesday in the past 11 weeks.

The infection reproduction number, which can gauge the future trend of the epidemic, dropped below 1 to 0.95 for the first time in 12 weeks. The infection reproduction number quantifies how many people one patient infects; a value below 1 indicates a 'decline in the epidemic.'

However, the number of critically ill patients has remained at a high level in the 500s for a week since the 5th. The number of critically ill patients reported on the day was 540, one less than the previous day.

Jung Ki-seok, head of the COVID-19 Special Response Team and chair of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, said on the 9th, "If the number of critically ill patients stabilizes and shows a downward trend this week, we could formally start discussions on adjusting the indoor mask mandate next week."

Last month, the quarantine authorities presented four conditions for switching the indoor mask-wearing mandate to a recommendation: ▲ a continuous decrease in weekly case numbers for more than two weeks ▲ a decrease in weekly new critically ill patients compared to the previous week and a weekly fatality rate below 0.10% ▲ availability of more than 50% of intensive care unit beds that can be mobilized within four weeks ▲ additional winter vaccination rates of over 50% for the elderly and over 60% for infection-vulnerable facilities.

They explained that if two or more of these conditions are met, the indoor mask mandate could be lifted except in some places such as transportation and social welfare facilities. Two conditions?case numbers and ICU bed availability?have already been met.

However, the severe epidemic in China and the still low vaccination rate among the elderly are negative factors against lifting the indoor mask mandate.

From January 2 to 7, the COVID-19 test positivity rate among arrivals from China, including short- and long-term foreign residents and nationals, was 19.6%, meaning one in five tested positive.

Since a large-scale epidemic continues in China, there is always a possibility of new variants emerging. Although strict entry quarantine measures are in place, if a new variant enters the country from China, the currently declining epidemic could surge again.

The vaccination rate among the elderly remains stagnant. The vaccination rate for those aged 60 and over was 31.4% as of last week, far below the target of 50%.

Im Suk-young, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) Situation Management Team, said at a briefing that "two indicators have reached the set reference levels, but we will not apply them mechanically and will consider the overall quarantine situation comprehensively," adding, "Especially, we need to consider the emergence of new variants and overseas influences."

Regarding the epidemic situation in China, Im said, "Some experts estimate the peak around January, while others estimate it could last until March," warning, "When a large number of confirmed cases occur in China, the possibility of new variant emergence is always present."

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency also predicted in a presidential report on the 9th that the COVID-19 epidemic in China would peak around March.

In this regard, Cho Kyu-hong, the first deputy head of the CDSCH and Minister of Health and Welfare, said, "We will comprehensively discuss related indicators such as the number of confirmed cases and vaccination rates, as well as overseas situations, to proceed with the adjustment of the indoor mask-wearing mandate."