The Political Science of the Backlash from Na Kyung-won... Dramatic Scenarios Also Emerging

Yeo Party Leadership Election, Pro-Yoon Scenario Back to Square One
If Na Kyung-won and Ahn Cheol-soo Gain Momentum, Leadership Election Could Change
'Recognition Illusion,' Hidden Variable in Opinion Polls

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] 'Na Kyung-won 30.7%, Kim Ki-hyun 18.8%, Yoo Seung-min 14.6%, Ahn Cheol-soo 13.6%...'

According to a survey conducted by Hangil Research on behalf of Cookie News from the 7th to the 9th among 1,020 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, when asked "Who do you support as the next party leader?", former lawmaker Na Kyung-won received the highest support among the People Power Party supporters. Lawmakers Kim Ki-hyun, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, and lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo followed.

In the overall national public opinion poll, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min led with 33.9%, followed by former lawmaker Na Kyung-won at 15.0%, lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo at 11.4%, and lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun at 8.8%. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The report by Cookie News on the 11th reflects the current state of public sentiment surrounding the People Power Party's leadership race. Although the meaning of the national public opinion poll results has somewhat diminished due to the change in the election system to 100% party member voting, it provides insight into how the public views the ruling party's leadership election. Support for former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min remains significant.

What is more noteworthy is that lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun, who is expected to receive strong backing from the pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Seok-yeol) faction, is trailing in fourth place. If this trend continues through the Lunar New Year holiday, the image of an unpopular ruling party leadership candidate could become entrenched.

From Kim Ki-hyun's perspective, the fortunate point is that he ranked second with 18.8% among People Power Party supporters. However, the gap with former lawmaker Na Kyung-won is large. Another variable is that if former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min chooses not to run, his 14.6% support is more likely to shift toward former lawmaker Na Kyung-won and lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo rather than Kim Ki-hyun.

A variable emerging in this public sentiment trend is the so-called 'Na Kyung-won-originated political backlash.' Criticism against former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, centered around the Presidential Office, has intensified. There are political interpretations that she is being pressured to withdraw from the leadership race. Former lawmaker Na Kyung-won has taken a firm stance by resigning as vice-chair of the Low Birthrate and Aging Society Committee.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

There was some confusion on the afternoon of the 10th when the Presidential Office issued a message saying "(the expression of intention to resign) is unknown." However, former lawmaker Na Kyung-won reportedly conveyed her intention to resign through text messages and phone calls to the media. The criticism led by pro-Yoon politicians against Na Kyung-won is acting as a political backlash. Sympathy for Na Kyung-won is being sensed. This is a scene where the pro-Yoon faction's leadership race scenario is shaking.

The pro-Yoon faction believed that just giving the impression that President Yoon Seok-yeol's will, so-called Yoon's heart (Yunshim, 尹心), was with lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun would make Kim Ki-hyun's smooth election possible. But politics is a living organism. The image that they are trying to bring down former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, who is leading the People Power Party supporters' poll, has served as the basis for the backlash.

Conversely, former lawmaker Na Kyung-won herself could become the subject of the backlash. If she insists on running, she may face a backlash trial unlike anything she has experienced in her political career. The pro-Yoon side could focus their criticism on her. This is a considerable burden for former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, who is drawing the blueprint for the next presidential election.

Former lawmaker Na Kyung-won is expected to decide whether to run before the Lunar New Year holiday begins on the 21st.

If former lawmaker Na Kyung-won chooses to run, the scenario of Na Kyung-won and Ahn Cheol-soo advancing to the runoff cannot be ruled out. Considering the upcoming changes in the electoral landscape and the realistic situation, the general analysis is that lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun will at least advance to the runoff. However, if Kim Ki-hyun cannot overturn the unfavorable poll situation, an unexpected situation may arise.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

From the pro-Yoon faction's standpoint, this is a scenario they do not want to imagine. If lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun fails to advance to the runoff, it would also cause political damage to President Yoon Seok-yeol, so the pro-Yoon faction is expected to make every effort to prevent such a situation.

Another variable is the 'recognition illusion.' The current People Power Party leadership race poll results are interpreted as outcomes reflecting differences in politicians' name recognition. Former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, who has higher public recognition, is receiving relatively higher support, but it is analyzed that lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun could rise once the leadership race intensifies.

In the leadership election, organization and faction strength are as important as momentum, and it is said that former lawmaker Na Kyung-won may show weaknesses in this area. If former lawmaker Na Kyung-won changes direction to run, establishing a political stance will not be as easy as it sounds.

On the 11th, Yoon Tae-gon, head of the political analysis office at The Moa, said in an interview with CBS Radio's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show,' "Even if she runs, rather than drawing a clear line against the president, it might be that all of this came from sincere intentions but there was some immaturity. Ultimately, she might go in the direction of resolving that."

This means it is difficult for former lawmaker Na Kyung-won to adopt a political stance that strongly criticizes President Yoon Seok-yeol like former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min. There is skepticism about whether she can lead the leadership election with ambiguous messaging.

From the People Power Party's perspective, the growing public interest surrounding the leadership race is not a bad situation. The fact that the People Power Party leadership race is a topic of conversation during Lunar New Year gatherings clearly helps the election's popularity.