[70th Anniversary of the Armistice]② Evolution of Spear and Shield... What Are the Military Strengths of Nambuk?

North Korea Develops ICBM and SLBM Nuclear Weapon Delivery Systems
South Korea Building Korean-style Missile Defense (KAMD) System
Possibility of Breach in Case of Various Missile Attacks

Editor's NoteIn 2023, North Korea started the new year with ballistic missile launches. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the armistice and the South Korea-US alliance, but the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is responding to North Korea's repeated military provocations, such as missile test launches and drone airspace intrusions, with a "peace through strength" approach characterized by "retaliation and reprisal." Amid ongoing strong standoff between the two Koreas, this article analyzes new changes on the Korean Peninsula intertwined with the delicate diplomatic situations between South Korea-China and the US-China.

[Asia Economy, Yang Nak-gyu, Military Correspondent] During the Korean War, our Navy and Air Force had only 32 aircraft and one fighter jet. The Army did not even have anti-tank weapons to counter North Korea's 'T-34 tanks' and 'SU-76 self-propelled guns.' However, after 70 years since the armistice, both South and North Korea have dramatically increased their military capabilities. North Korea has diversified its offensive capabilities by utilizing various nuclear delivery systems such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Meanwhile, our military is focusing its budget on securing the Korean-style 3-axis system capabilities to counter North Korea's nuclear and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This is why the missile and defense systems of North Korea and South Korea are often described as a "spear and shield battle."

North Korea, which imported weapons from the former Soviet Union... Diversification of nuclear weapon delivery systems

North Korea has diversified its strike capabilities by utilizing various nuclear delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The photo shows the launch of a new tactical guided weapon (short-range ballistic missile) reported by Korean Central TV.

Military scholars divide North Korea's missile development history into phases: the introduction period (late 1960s to mid-1970s), imitation production period (mid-1970s to early 1980s), self-production period (early 1980s to mid-1990s), and revolutionary performance improvement period (mid-1990s onward).

During the introduction period, North Korea imported short-range guided weapons of the FROG (Free Rocket Over Ground) series from the former Soviet Union and operationalized them. In the imitation production period, North Korea participated in missile joint projects with China and produced copies of the Scud-B missile. While enhancing its self-production capabilities, it also began developing missiles independently. Based on this, in July 2006, North Korea test-fired the Taepodong missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

In the early days, South Korea and the US named North Korean missiles after the locations where they were first discovered. Missiles found in Nodong-ri, Hamju County, North Hamgyong Province, were called 'Nodong missiles,' and those found in Taepodong, Hwadae County, North Hamgyong Province, were called 'Taepodong missiles.' However, as the number of missile types increased according to range, South Korea and the US assigned the code 'KN,' an abbreviation for 'North Korea,' followed by Iranian code names. This is why the same missile has different names used by South Korea-US authorities and North Korea. For example, the missile called KN-03 by South Korea and the US is called the Nodong missile by North Korea.

North Korea classifies its missiles by range and deploys them in three belts. Based on launch points, intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) are positioned in the rear areas, medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) in the middle areas, and near Wonsan, Gangwon Province, a 300mm new type multiple rocket launcher forms a "missile axis."

Recently, even this belt concept has become meaningless due to the use of transporter erector launchers (TELs). Unlike fixed missile bases, TELs can move and launch missiles anywhere without location constraints. According to a joint report by South Korea and US military authorities, North Korea possesses up to about 900 ballistic missiles, deploying up to 440 Scud missiles and owning 108 TELs.

By missile type, the number of Scud missiles and TELs capable of carrying Scud missiles is the highest. The number of Scud missiles is up to about 430 (36 TELs). Following are Musudan missiles with 27 units (27 TELs), Nodong missiles about 330 (27 TELs), KN-02 about 100 (12 TELs), and KN-08 and KN-14 totaling 12 (6 TELs).

This year, North Korea hinted at testing military reconnaissance satellites and the possibility of ICBM test launches at normal angles (30?45 degrees). It also declared it would complete preparations for its first military reconnaissance satellite by April next year. This signifies the intention to establish the so-called "North Korean-style 3-axis system" alongside tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Development of solid-fuel engines for "solid ICBMs" and nuclear submarines is also anticipated. Concerns about a seventh nuclear test remain. Experts explain that if domestic and international conditions are favorable, North Korea could press the nuclear test button at any time. The possibility of a series of nuclear tests is also being discussed.

Our military building North Korean missile defense system... Nuclear-powered submarines needed for pinpoint strikes

Our military is building the Korean-style missile defense (KAMD) system capable of multi-layered missile defense to counter North Korean missiles. When North Korea launches a missile, the first to respond is the naval surface-to-air missile 'SM-3.' The SM-3 has a maximum range of 2,500 km and a maximum interception altitude of 1,000 km. If the SM-3 fails to intercept North Korean missiles, the long-range surface-to-air missile (L-SAM) takes over at altitudes of 50?60 km. Then, at altitudes of 40?150 km, the US Forces Korea's THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system intercepts, and at 15?40 km, the Patriot (PAC-3) and Cheongung-II surface-to-air missiles (M-SAM) handle interception. In November last year, the domestically developed L-SAM succeeded in its first interception test, accelerating the development of L-SAM II. The THAAD-level system with an interception altitude of about 150 km is planned to be deployed in actual service by 2029.

Some experts evaluate that if North Korea launches various types of missiles simultaneously, the KAMD system is at high risk of being penetrated. This is why operations to quickly detect and strike launch points must be conducted simultaneously. Our military's Korean-style 3-axis system, which combines the kill chain and massive retaliation (KMPR) concepts to preemptively strike North Korean nuclear and missile threats, is closely related to this. On the 2nd of this month, the Joint Chiefs of Staff established the Nuclear and WMD Response Headquarters responsible for the Korean-style 3-axis system missions. The goal is to strike North Korean targets within 30 minutes under the South Korea-US combined preemptive strike system.

Earlier, President Yoon Suk-yeol emphasized in his speech on the 74th Armed Forces Day on October 1 last year, "We will promptly establish the Korean-style 3-axis system to dramatically enhance reconnaissance and strike capabilities against North Korea."

Within the military, voices advocating the introduction of nuclear-powered submarines are growing, considering North Korea's rapidly advancing underwater capabilities. North Korea possesses about 80 submarines, which is two to three times the size of our Navy. Currently, 88 submarines are deployed, including one Sinpo-class submarine capable of launching SLBMs, 20 Romeo-class, 44 Sang-o-class, and 23 Yeon-o-class submarines. The Navy says that by acquiring at least six submarines, it can deploy one in the East Sea, one in the West Sea, and one for monitoring surrounding countries near Ieodo. The remaining three can be maintained and prepared for rotation. A military official said, "To conduct regular maintenance and crew rotations for nuclear-powered submarines, six such submarines must be possessed. If deployed to the Jeju base squadron, it will enable monitoring capabilities not only against North Korea but also surrounding countries near Dokdo and Ieodo."