Former Defense Ministers Who Experienced Putin Directly
"Putin Will Defeat Ukraine"
[Asia Economy Reporter Yujin Cho] Former U.S. foreign and security ministers have pointed out that Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, who shows a dual stance by mentioning peace talks amid intensified offensives against Ukraine, will not end the fighting and destruction in Ukraine, and that the U.S. must take urgent measures before it is too late.
On the 7th (local time), in a joint op-ed titled "Time Is Not on Ukraine's Side" published in The Washington Post (WP), former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates argued that there is no other way to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine than for the West, led by the U.S., to sharply increase the provision of weapons and military supplies to Ukraine.
The former ministers stated, "The only certainty right now is that the fighting and destruction will continue," adding, "Putin believes the restoration of the Russian Empire is his historical destiny, a messianic mission that Russia cannot exist without Ukraine." They continued, "Putin is fully committed to either placing Ukraine under Russian control or destroying the country as an independent nation."
They also said, "We are convinced that Putin believes time is on his side," expressing pessimism that "Putin can break Ukraine, and the unity and support of the U.S. and Europe will eventually crack and break."
Former Secretary Rice served as Secretary of State from 2005 to 2009, succeeding Colin Powell during the George W. Bush administration, and former Secretary Gates served as Secretary of Defense from 2006 to 2011 under both the Bush and Barack Obama administrations.
Rice is known to be fluent in Russian and reportedly held direct conversations with President Putin without an interpreter, and both have personally experienced dealing with President Putin during their terms.
They affirmed, "Defeat is not an option for Putin." This was a warning against Putin’s deceptive tactics, such as advocating peace talks at the end of last year while conducting rocket attacks behind the scenes.
They predicted, "Putin will not cede the four eastern regions of Ukraine that he declared Russian territory," and "If he does not succeed militarily this year, he will continue to control eastern and southern Ukraine, which serves as a starting point for a new offensive to seize the remaining areas along the Black Sea coast, control the entire Donbas region, and then move westward."
They emphasized that it took eight years from Russia’s seizure of the Crimean Peninsula, which belonged to Ukraine, to the current invasion, and that Putin, who is determined to fulfill his destiny, will be patient.
They also noted, "Ukraine’s military capability and economy are almost entirely dependent on the lifeline provided by the West, mainly the U.S.," and predicted, "Without a breakthrough and success against the Russian military, Western pressure on Ukraine for ceasefire negotiations will increase as the military stalemate drags on for months."
They added, "Any ceasefire negotiated under the current circumstances would place Russian forces in a strong position to resume the invasion at any time," and proposed, "The only way to avoid such a scenario is for the U.S. and its allies to rapidly increase the provision of military supplies sufficient to halt Russia’s offensive."
In particular, they welcomed the recent U.S. decision to provide Bradley armored vehicles, stating, "What is needed now is the determination of the U.S. and its allies to supply additional military equipment demanded by Ukraine, especially mobile armored weapons."
However, they pointed out, "There are logistical difficulties related to sending Abrams tanks, so allies such as Germany need to fill this need." The U.S. recently announced support for the Bradley armored vehicle, a light tank, but Ukraine is also requesting support for the more powerful M1 Abrams tank.
The former ministers urged, "NATO must provide long-range missiles, state-of-the-art drones, and more reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities not in months but within weeks."
They mentioned that the global economy, including the U.S., is already suffering from inflation and growth hindrance due to Putin’s attacks, emphasizing that it is better to stop him now before more is demanded from the U.S. and NATO.
They agreed with the Biden administration’s decision to avoid direct confrontation with Russia but warned, "A bolder Putin may not allow such an option."
Finally, they said, "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to the U.S. Congress last month recalls Winston Churchill’s speech in 1941 during World War II," and emphasized, "While we support the Biden administration’s intention to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, the way to avoid confrontation with Russia is to help Ukraine push Russia back."
They continued, "That is the lesson history must guide us by, and the urgent action the U.S. must take before it is too late."
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