[2023 Global Outlook] New Cold War Deadlock... "North Korea's Nuclear Advancement Until US Chooses Compromise"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] As North Korea prepares for its 7th nuclear test, the situation on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia remains at a standstill. Due to the ongoing standoff caused by North Korea's successive military provocations and the intensifying US-China rivalry, the new Cold War confrontation of 'South Korea-US-Japan versus North Korea-China-Russia' is expected to continue into next year.

In diplomatic circles, there is analysis that North Korea is likely to focus on advancing its nuclear capabilities next year as well, which could worsen the deadlock on the Korean Peninsula. This is because North Korea has completed all preparations by adopting the 'Nuclear Force Policy Law' along with its nuclear and missile strike capabilities covering the entire Korean Peninsula.

Cha Doo-hyun, Senior Research Fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, evaluated on the 14th, "This year, North Korea demonstrated its nuclear strike capability against all regions of South Korea and that new missiles have reached the operational deployment stage," adding, "They have also established the theoretical foundation by adopting the Nuclear Force Policy Law." He further predicted, "Since North Korea's obsession with nuclear weapons is likely to continue, the advancement of its nuclear capabilities will persist until the US chooses to compromise."

The Northeast Asian situation is also plunging into turmoil. Recently, the US Department of Defense identified China as the most important strategic competitor and Russia as the most urgent threat in the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) report.

China, after President Xi Jinping secured a third term at the Party Congress, is pursuing a hardline foreign policy. The Chinese Ministry of Defense criticized the US security strategy as "full of Cold War thinking and zero-sum games," and countered, "The US should stop playing with fire over the Taiwan issue." President Xi declared that he would not hesitate to use force for Taiwan's unification. If China's invasion of Taiwan materializes within a few years, the flames are likely to spread to the Korean Peninsula.

Russia's actions are also notable. President Vladimir Putin recently warned, "If South Korea supplies weapons to Ukraine, the Korea-Russia relationship will collapse."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Japan has embarked on strengthening its defense capabilities under the pretext of the North Korean threat. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has ordered securing 43 trillion yen (412 trillion won) in defense spending over five years starting next year. Earlier, Prime Minister Kishida instructed raising defense spending from the current level of about 1% of GDP to 2% by 2027. Japan's justification for enhancing its military power is also North Korea. It plans to explicitly include counterattack capabilities to strike enemy bases in its security strategy, citing North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

As the US-China rivalry and the 'South Korea-US-Japan versus North Korea-China-Russia' framework deepen in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, resolving the North Korean issue is expected to become more difficult. Nam Kwang-gyu, Director of the Center for Unification and International Peace at Korea University's Asia Institute, expressed concern, saying, "As the US-China confrontation and new Cold War dynamics intensify, interest in the North Korean issue declines, and Northeast Asian international relations are likely to form in a way that does not consider the North Korean variable. In the context of strengthening the South Korea-US alliance and South Korea-US-Japan cooperation, the importance of inter-Korean relations diminishes, making it difficult to find common ground with North Korea, so the possibility of North Korea engaging in dialogue is low."

Some speculate that although North Korea is cutting off dialogue and continuing provocations daily, it will eventually seek to return to negotiations. Jo Han-beom, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, predicted, "North Korea is unlikely to engage in dialogue with the Yoon Suk-yeol administration but is leaving room by moderating its stance toward the US. Since North Korea has many cases of suddenly returning to the negotiation table when it deems necessary, there is also a possibility of finding a breakthrough in dialogue."