Two Fouls Lead to One Penalty Miss... Qatar World Cup 'Penalty Kick Fear'

Qatar World Cup Penalty Kick Success Rate Including Shootouts at 58.1%
Down 12.5% from Russia Tournament 4 Years Ago

Poland goalkeeper Szczesny is saving Lionel Messi's penalty kick. Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Bang Je-il] The penalty kick success rate (including shootouts) at the 2022 Qatar World Cup was found to be only 58%.

There were 16 penalty kicks awarded during matches in this tournament. In the two shootouts that took place before the round of 16, 15 attempts were made. Out of a total of 31 penalty kicks, 18 resulted in goals, making the success rate 58.1%.

This is about 12.5% lower than the 70.6% success rate at the 2018 Russia World Cup. In the 2018 tournament, there were 29 penalty kicks during matches and 39 in shootouts, totaling 68 attempts, with 48 goals scored.

According to data released by the Korea Professional Football League in April 2020, the penalty kick success rate since the launch of professional football in 1983 was 79.2%.

From the 2010-2011 season, the English Premier League recorded 1,397 penalty kicks, with 1,094 goals scored, resulting in a success rate of 78%.

Considering that the World Cup is a single tournament and the pressure on kickers is much greater compared to regular league matches, the 58% success rate in this tournament is notably low.

World-class forwards such as Robert Lewandowski (Poland) and Lionel Messi (Argentina) also failed to capitalize on their penalty kick opportunities in this tournament.

Spain, known as the "Invincible Armada," practiced penalty kicks 1,000 times in preparation for shootouts but failed to score even once in the shootout against Morocco in the round of 16, losing 0-3.

The probability of goalkeepers making saves, rather than kickers missing, also increased significantly in this tournament. Goalkeepers saved 11 penalty kicks, accounting for 35.5% of attempts.

According to the British newspaper Daily Mail, from 1966 to 2018, the probability of goalkeepers saving penalty kicks was 17%. The save rate in this tournament more than doubled. Looking only at penalty kicks awarded during matches excluding shootouts, 11 out of 16 were successful, recording a 68.8% success rate. In shootouts, 7 out of 15 were successful, a 46.7% success rate.

In the 2018 tournament, the success rate for penalty kicks during matches was 75.9% (22/29), and 66.7% (26/39) in shootouts. The American sports media outlet ESPN reported, "Since the 1966 tournament through the last World Cup, the success rate for penalty kicks awarded during matches was 80% (176/220)."

On the other hand, the success rate for shootouts, where the kicker's pressure increases, is 69% (203/294). Among shootout kickers, the first kicker has the highest success rate at 75%, followed by the fourth at 64%, and the fifth at 65%. The success rate decreases as the order goes on, dropping sharply to 50% for the sixth kicker, where the outcome is decided one by one.