[Jjinbit] "Mon & Fri at home, Tue-Thu at office... Remote work increases with technology"

Interview with Professor Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University

Editor's Note[Jjinbit] is a shortened form of ‘Jung Hyunjin’s Business Trend’ and ‘Real Business Trend.’ This segment showcases trends in ‘work’ such as organizational culture and HR systems after the pandemic. Based on analyses from foreign media and major overseas institutions that have not received much attention so far, we will deliver fresh and differentiated information and perspectives.

[Asia Economy Reporter Jung Hyunjin] "The level of Work From Home (WFH) over the next five years will take the shape of the Nike logo, the 'Swoosh.' It will slightly decrease due to the economic downturn but will increase more in the long term due to technological advances."

Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University professor who has been researching remote work for nearly 20 years, made this prediction last October regarding the spread of WFH triggered by COVID-19. In a written interview with Asia Economy on the 14th of last month, he explained, "There is a movement to return to the office (in the U.S. and elsewhere), but very few companies are pushing for a full return," adding, "There is a big difference between fully returning to the office five days a week and going to the office three days a week. Companies like Twitter and Tesla that demand a full return are rare."

Professor Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University

Professor Bloom is one of the fastest economists to grasp changes in work styles such as remote work and hybrid work (a mix of remote work and office attendance). After the COVID-19 outbreak, in May 2020, he formed the research group 'WFH Research' together with economists from the University of Chicago and the National Autonomous University of Mexico, conducting monthly surveys on changes in work styles and publishing reports analyzing trends. In recognition of these efforts, he received the Guggenheim Fellowship, awarded to outstanding scholars and artists in the U.S., last April. In October, he also held the first-ever '2022 Remote Work Conference,' presenting about 20 papers and materials related to work styles.

◆ "COVID-19 Completely Changed Perspectives and Practices"... 30% of Americans Working Remotely

WFH Research, led by Professor Bloom, addresses various issues arising from the expansion of remote work. It not only checks basic data such as the proportion of remote workers in the U.S. and the impact of work styles on resignations but also conducts interesting studies on how remote work affects behaviors like showering or brushing teeth. For reference, a survey of about 4,000 American workers found that the percentage of people showering while working remotely dropped from 85.1% to 73.4% compared to office attendance, and the percentage brushing teeth decreased from 95.3% to 91.8%.

In the interview, Professor Bloom evaluated, "COVID-19 has permanently changed perspectives on remote work and the practices of companies and individuals." According to a recent report by WFH Research, before the COVID-19 outbreak, only 5% of employees in the U.S. worked remotely, but now this has increased sixfold to 30%. The proportion of remote workers in the U.S. exceeded 60% in July 2020, then gradually declined in the second half of the year to the 30% range, maintaining that level since. This means that 3 out of 10 American workers are working fully remotely.

The proportion of fully remote workers in the United States (Graph source = WFH Research)

Professor Bloom focused on how technological advances change work styles. Currently, about half of Americans are engaged in on-site work that cannot be done remotely. He analyzed, "Technology is slowly changing by increasing the number of people who can work remotely." Representative examples are doctors and delivery workers. He said that for doctors, technological advances have made it possible to perform relatively less critical medical tasks, such as reissuing the same prescription, remotely. Also, with the development of delivery robots, delivery workers’ roles are partially replaced, allowing one person to supervise 10 delivery robots, and this work can be done remotely, Professor Bloom explained.

Professor Bloom has long studied hybrid work, which mixes remote work and office attendance. When asked what the most desirable and optimal hybrid work system is at this point, he said, "Working from home on Mondays and Fridays, and going to the office from Tuesday to Thursday," adding, "When at the office, the focus should be on face-to-face activities such as meetings, training, lunch, and discussions." He believes that the limitation of employee training in remote work can be resolved by effectively utilizing office attendance time.

◆ Employer-Employee 'Different Dreams'... The Gap Is Narrowing

Looking at reports published by WFH Research, it is confirmed that the views of employers and employees are changing. According to a report released on the 3rd, a survey of 160,000 people including employers and employees showed that employees desire 2.75 days of remote work per week, which is about 0.4 days more than the 2.34 days employers are actually planning. This gap was 1.36 days in December 2020 (employees 2.96 days, employers 1.60 days) but has been rapidly narrowing since last year. The number of remote work days adopted by employers is increasing faster than the number desired by employees.

In the interview, Professor Bloom said, "Although differences in thoughts and desires between both sides are confirmed, considering the scale and speed of change, it is not that surprising," adding, "As time goes by, more experience with hybrid work will be gained, and then these differences between employers and employees will continue to change." He said, "Hybrid work improves productivity, makes employees happier, supports workplace diversity, and is rapidly becoming the standard form," adding, "Once this method stabilizes, the gap between employers’ and employees’ perspectives will narrow even more than now."

Professor Bloom evaluated that remote work and hybrid work have changed society in many aspects. He said, "When working remotely, commuting is eliminated, making it easier for workers who have to work with children or people with disabilities, students doing part-time jobs, and older workers nearing retirement to work," adding, "This will have a significant long-term impact on increasing labor supply and promoting growth." He also assessed that as workers move from urban centers to suburban areas without daily commuting, retail and leisure activities will also shift accordingly.

Furthermore, Professor Bloom added, "Remote work changes many activity times," saying, "In the U.S., compared to before the pandemic, more people play golf on Mondays or Fridays, and slightly fewer on weekends. People are doing golf and other leisure activities during weekdays and shifting some work to weekends."

◆ About Professor Nicholas Bloom

▲ Bachelor’s degree from the University of Cambridge, Master’s from the University of Oxford, Ph.D. from University College London (UCL) ▲ McKinsey Consultant (2002?2003) ▲ Professor of Economics at Stanford University (2005?) ▲ Co-Director of Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship at the National Bureau of Economic Research (2011?) ▲ Recipient of the Guggenheim Fellowship (2022) ▲ Recipient of the Schumpeter Prize in International Economics (2019)