Low Goal-Scoring Efficiency, Defensive Line Gaps, Player Condition Variables
ESPN "If the Korean Team Unites and Fights, They Could Cause the Biggest Upset in History"
Brazil national football team player Neymar is training on the 4th (local time) in Doha, Qatar, in preparation for the Round of 16 match against Korea scheduled for the next day at the Qatar World Cup. Photo by EPA·Yonhap News
[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] Even Brazil, considered the strongest team among the countries participating in the 2022 Qatar World Cup, has its weaknesses. While it is generally predicted that Brazil will win in relation to South Korea's prospects for the Round of 16, football can sometimes produce unexpected results.
On the 5th, Opta, a football statistics and analysis specialist media, predicted South Korea's winning probability against Brazil in the 2022 Qatar World Cup Round of 16 match at 14.4%. This placed South Korea as the country with the second-lowest probability of advancing to the Round of 16, following Australia (13.78%).
Chris Sutton, a football commentator for the BBC known as the "Human Octopus," also predicted South Korea's defeat. Sutton has accurately predicted many outcomes in this World Cup, including South Korea's advancement to the Round of 16.
He said, "South Korea showed how well organized they are defensively against Portugal, but I don't think it's enough to trouble Brazil," adding, "(South Korea) will lose 0-2." He also added, "I believe Brazil will win even without Neymar."
However, the FIFA-ranked number one Brazil team also has weaknesses. First, their goal-scoring efficiency is low. According to official FIFA statistics, Brazil scored one goal every approximately 17.3 shots, the lowest among the teams advancing to the Round of 16. France, for example, took 52 shots but scored 6 goals, double that of Brazil, and England and Spain each scored 9 goals from 38 shots. Brazilian media Globo pointed out that Brazil took 17 shots to score one goal, making them the least efficient team among those who advanced to the Round of 16.
Their goals per shots on target are also low. Brazil had 21 shots on target and scored 3 goals, averaging one goal per 7 shots on target, the lowest among the Round of 16 teams. South Korea scored 4 goals from 39 shots, with 12 shots on target, converting one out of every three shots on target into a goal.
Brazil national football team coach Tite, whose team will face South Korea in the Round of 16 at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, is leading training at Al-Arabi SC Stadium in Doha, Qatar, on the afternoon of the 4th (local time). Photo by Yonhap News
Additionally, during the group stage, five players were injured, causing gaps in the side defense. Alex Danilo and Alex Sandro (both Juventus) are injured, and Alex Ellis (Sevilla) and Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal) are out due to injuries. However, Neymar (Paris Saint-Germain) is likely to start.
Football commentator Kim Dae-gil explained in an interview with YTN Radio's "News King Park Ji-hoon" on the 5th, "Brazil has also exposed injured players during the matches, especially problems on the full-back sides. Sandro is a fixed starter on the left side, but he was injured. So Telles came in, but he also got injured and was out."
He continued, "Danilo on the side is also reported to be in less than ideal condition. So, generally, it's good for the team if the defensive line doesn't change once the game starts, but Brazil is showing weaknesses on the side defense."
The players' condition is also a variable. Antony (Manchester United), Alisson (Liverpool), and others have shown cold symptoms such as sore throat and cough. Antony said in an interview with Brazilian media on the 30th that his throat hurt due to air conditioning and that he is "recovering to be at 100% condition." Alisson conceded his first goal in the group stage's last match against Cameroon.
On the 4th (local time), one day before the Round of 16 match between Korea and Brazil in the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Paulo Bento, head coach of the Korean national team, and Kim Jin-su held an official press conference at the Main Media Center (MMC) set up at the Qatar National Convention Center (QNCC) in Al Rayyan, Qatar. Photo by Yonhap News
Because of this, there is also analysis suggesting the possibility of an upset with South Korea winning. On the 4th (local time), American sports media ESPN reported, "For South Korea to recreate the 2002 semi-final miracle, they must show indomitable spirit against Brazil," adding, "If they unite and fight without fear of Brazil, there is a possibility of the biggest upset in history."
The media noted that Neymar's likely return makes it a difficult match for South Korea but said, "Considering that the Round of 16 is a single-elimination match, there is hope."
The South Korean team stated they will play their best game riding the momentum from their previous match against Portugal. Paulo Bento, the head coach of the South Korean national football team, said at a press conference held at the main media center in Al Rayyan, Qatar, on the night of the 4th (Korean time), "Every team has weaknesses," adding, "We will explain well to the players to seize opportunities. We will try to practice theoretically once."
Coach Bento emphasized, "If we played multiple matches, Brazil would likely win, but in a single match, we could win. We have nothing to lose," adding, "What we must remember to win is the team's image, will to win, competitiveness, and running until the whistle blows. With this spirit, I think there will be no problem."
Meanwhile, the South Korean team will face Brazil in the Round of 16 at 4 a.m. on the 6th at the 974 Stadium in Doha, Qatar.
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