The Misfiring 7th North Korean Nuclear Test... Will It Extend Beyond This Year?

On the 24th, officials from North Korea's nuclear weapons research institute carried out demolition work to close the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province. At the moment of the demolition of the Punggye-ri nuclear test management command post facility, wooden buildings were blown apart and shattered. On this day, seven buildings of the management command post facility were demolished. Officials from North Korea's nuclear weapons research institute explained that "Tunnel No. 4 was prepared for the most powerful nuclear test." / Photo by Joint Press Corps

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Predictions that North Korea would carry out its 7th nuclear test have once again been proven wrong. On the 29th, as North Korea marked the 5th anniversary of declaring the completion of its nuclear force, there were widespread forecasts that it would conduct the 7th nuclear test.

Five years ago, on November 29, 2017, North Korea declared the completion of its national nuclear force after launching the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-class ‘Hwasong-15’. Accordingly, there were speculations about the possibility of North Korea conducting the 7th nuclear test or additional ICBM launches around this date.

South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies had considered the period after September as a likely time for a nuclear test. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) pointed out during a closed session of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on September 28 that there was a high possibility of North Korea conducting a nuclear test between the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party on October 16 and the U.S. midterm elections on November 7. However, the prediction did not materialize.

On May 19, the NIS also reported to the National Assembly that "North Korea has completed preparations for a nuclear test and is only waiting for the timing." This led to rumors circulating about the imminent 7th nuclear test.

However, military authorities have only assessed that North Korea has completed all preparations and could carry out the test at any time. It is believed that only the political decision of Chairman Kim Jong-un remains.

On the 29th, military authorities stated, "North Korea’s nuclear test can be carried out at any time depending on political judgment, but so far there have been no notable changes warranting further explanation."

Kim Jun-rak, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a regular briefing that "South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies are closely cooperating to meticulously track and monitor related developments, and our military maintains a firm readiness posture," regarding North Korea’s activities on the 5th anniversary of the so-called ‘completion of nuclear force’ declaration.

President Yoon Suk-yeol also said in an interview with foreign media on the same day that if North Korea conducts a nuclear test, "it is very important for the entire international community to speak with one consistent voice." When asked what South Korea and its allies would do if North Korea carried out a nuclear test, President Yoon warned, "North Korea conducting the 7th nuclear test would be a very foolish decision," adding, "It would include responses that have not been taken so far."

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the University of North Korean Studies said, “North Korea’s nuclear tests are driven more by political reasons than technical ones,” and added, “North Korea needs to maximize political effects, so it will not conduct a nuclear test this year.”