Growing Worries, Shrinking Worries... The Two Faces of the 8 Billion Global Population Era

Sub-Saharan African Poor Countries Lead Population Growth... Peak of 10.4 Billion in 2080
South Korea, Japan, China Face Population Decline and Aging Concerns... Russia and Ukraine Also Expected to Suffer War Aftereffects

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Sumi] The era of a global population of 8 billion has arrived. The notable population growth in some developing countries in Africa and Asia is expected to continue for decades. Some voices express concerns that population growth centered on specific countries could pose significant risks in the future.

According to the United Nations Population Division (UNPD), the world population surpassed 8 billion on the 15th (local time). This is double the 4 billion recorded in 1974, marking a 48-year increase. Population growth is mainly driven by parts of Asia and Africa. By country, China and India each have populations of about 1.4 billion, the largest in the world. However, next year, India is expected to surpass China, which is showing stagnant population growth, to become the most populous country globally.

India Expected to Surpass China’s Population Next Year

The world population is expected to continue increasing for the time being. The UN projects that due to increased life expectancy and the growth of the reproductive-age population, the global population will rise from about 8.5 billion in 2030 to 9.7 billion in 2050, peak at 10.4 billion in 2080, and then maintain this level until 2100.

As the world population enters the 8 billion era, some concerns have been raised. The population growth expected to continue for decades could hinder climate change responses and act as a factor causing large-scale migration or physical conflicts between countries. John Wilmoth, Director of UNPD, warned, "Reaching 8 billion people is a sign of human success but could also be a major risk for the future."

The fact that population growth is occurring mainly in poor countries is also cited as a problem. The UN expects that most of the increase in the world population until the peak will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The UN explained, "There is a tendency for higher fertility rates to be maintained where per capita income is lower, and most of these countries are concentrated in that region." Specifically, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania in Africa, and India, the Philippines, and Pakistan in Asia are predicted to lead global population growth.

Accordingly, as the population continues to increase, the amount of resources available per capita will decrease, but demand will continue to rise. Ultimately, shortages of resources such as food, water, and energy could exacerbate malnutrition and hunger problems in poor countries.

On June 23 (local time), barley harvesting is underway in the fields of Odesa, a southern port city of Ukraine. Photo by Yonhap News

Conversely, some countries face problems due to declining populations. South Korea is a representative country recently facing social and economic issues due to rapid population decline. According to the National Statistical Office’s National Statistics Portal (KOSIS), South Korea’s population, which had shown a stable increase, peaked at 51.836 million in 2020 and has steadily decreased from 51.745 million last year to 51.628 million this year.

In particular, South Korea’s total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) was 0.81 in 2021, the second lowest in the world after Hong Kong (0.75). The fact that this figure was far below the global total fertility rate (2.32) that year indicates that South Korea has entered an era of population collapse. Moreover, the National Statistical Office projects that South Korea’s population, about 51 million this year, will decrease by about 27% to 38 million by 2070.

Population Giant China Also Faces Population Cliff Crisis

China, once called a population giant, also appears to be facing a population cliff crisis. To curb rapid population growth, China implemented the "one-child policy" from 1978, but due to a sharp decline in birth rates, it introduced the "two-child policy" in 2016 and fully implemented the "three-child policy" in May last year.

Last year, China’s birth population recorded 10.62 million, an 11.5% decrease from 12 million in 2020, the lowest since the Great Famine period in 1961 (9.49 million). Particularly, the natural population growth rate (0.034%) was the lowest since 1960. Given this situation, China is on the verge of losing its status as the most populous country to India as early as next year. The Chinese National Health Commission also forecasts that China’s population will begin to decline within three years.

Russia and Ukraine, which have been at war for about nine months, have also not escaped population decline. According to Bloomberg News, as of August, Russia’s population was 145.1 million, down 475,500 from the beginning of the year. This is 3.2 million fewer than in 1991 (148.3 million), when the former Soviet Union collapsed.

The situation in Ukraine is similar. According to World Population Review data, Ukraine’s population dropped from 43.53 million last year to about 36.96 million as of midnight on the 16th. Russian economist Aleksandr Isakov predicted, "If the war continues, the population will further decrease due to emigration, war casualties, and declining birth rates."

On the 5th of last month, children from local daycare centers are experiencing sweet potato harvesting at the field crop exhibition plot of the National Institute of Crop Science, Rural Development Administration. Photo by Yonhap News

This ongoing population decline phenomenon causes various social and economic problems. In South Korea, the aging population due to low birth rates has increased the proportion of people aged 65 and older, reducing the working-age population. Consequently, labor shortages are worsening, weakening the economy’s growth potential. Meanwhile, expenditures on pensions and various social security benefits to support the elderly are increasing, placing a heavier burden on the national finances.

Japan is also one of the countries suffering from low birth rates and aging. According to the UN, Japan’s population decreased from 128.13 million in 2010 to 128.08 million in 2011 and has declined for 11 consecutive years until last year. The prolonged population stagnation and decline are considered a major reason why the Japanese economy has stagnated for 30 years.

Signs of Rebound in Japan’s Total Fertility Rate

However, Japan has been continuously implementing policies to overcome the low birth rate problem since 1990. It has been pouring resources into budgets supporting childbirth and childcare policies.

Thanks to these efforts, Japan has recently succeeded in raising its low fertility rate. The total fertility rate, which had fallen to 1.26 in 2005, rose to 1.45 in 2015 and maintained 1.30 even last year during the COVID-19 pandemic. The UN also expects Japan’s fertility rate to rise slightly and reach the 1.5 range in the 2060s.