[G20 Summit] In 2009, Financial Crisis Cooperation... This Year, Can't Even Take a Group Photo

Participation of Over 40 Heads of State
Focus on Biden-Bin Salman Meeting
UK's Sunak and Italy's Meloni Debut Stage
Joint Statement May Not Be Adopted

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] Every man for himself. Despite the so-called 'perfect storm' warnings pouring in for the global economy this year, moves toward global cooperation have been hardly visible. The upcoming Group of Twenty (G20) summit, where dozens of leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden will gather, is raising expectations as a potential opportunity to find cooperative solutions to sharply conflicting security issues and global economic crisis concerns. This is why anticipation is building.

◆Mounting Global Issues

As the G20 summit takes place on the 15th and 16th in Bali, Indonesia, there are numerous urgent issues requiring global cooperation. The Russia-Ukraine war, which erupted following the COVID-19 pandemic, has now lasted nearly 10 months. This has had a significant impact on global food and energy crises, inflation, and supply chain disruptions.

Simultaneous monetary tightening by central banks worldwide to curb inflation, concerns over an ensuing recession, and recent financial market instability observed in countries like the United Kingdom clearly send the message that even economic powerhouses are not safe from the looming crisis. Additionally, China's ambitions toward Taiwan and North Korea's nuclear threats have escalated openly, extending geopolitical risks from Ukraine to Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

Amid this, a diplomatic stage is unfolding in Southeast Asia where major world leaders are gathering in one place, facing the pressing need to resolve these accumulated issues. Luhut Panjaitan, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment and head of the G20 summit support team, confirmed at a press conference last week that over 40 heads of state will visit Bali.

U.S. President Joe Biden arrives in Bali, Indonesia, where the G20 Summit is being held.
[Photo by AP News]

The foremost key event is the first face-to-face meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the 14th. President Biden made unexpectedly strong gains in this month's midterm elections, and President Xi secured a third term at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party last month. With both leaders solidifying their domestic positions and meeting face-to-face for the first time, there is hope that if the two countries can find common ground beyond their strong standoff, global instability may ease.

Attention is also focused on the tense relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Despite President Biden previously flying to Saudi Arabia to request increased oil production and being rebuffed, he currently indicates no plans to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the summit. However, since the possibility of a meeting is not entirely ruled out, it is worth watching for informal encounters outside of official meetings. The question of Russian President Vladimir Putin's attendance at the G20 summit was a major point of interest but has been settled with his absence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to participate via video conference.

Additionally, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will make their international diplomatic debuts at this summit. Leaders from Spain, the Netherlands, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are also expected to visit Bali as invited guests.

Furthermore, heads of state from Senegal, Suriname, Cambodia, and Fiji will attend the G20 as chairpersons of regional organizations such as the African Union Development Agency, ASEAN, the Caribbean Community, and the Pacific Islands Forum, respectively, to discuss the global food crisis and economic challenges facing developing and emerging countries.

◆Low Likelihood of Joint Statement...Group Photo Also Unlikely

Multilateral meetings offer a chance to halt the escalating confrontations in the international community driven by a 'every man for himself' approach. There is strong hope that the G20 summit will demonstrate global cooperation and leadership to overcome inflation, high oil prices, and food and energy crises. However, many forecasts suggest this will be difficult. There are concerns that failure to utilize this opportunity and only confirming differences could further escalate conflicts.

Currently, the interests of countries sharply diverge over pressing issues ranging from global inflation, tightening monetary policies, and a strong dollar to geopolitical risks such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is why the joint communiqu?s failed to be adopted at last month's G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting and the APEC finance ministers meeting.

At those meetings, many member countries agreed that the global economic outlook had darkened due to war, inflation, major countries' monetary tightening, and supply chain disruptions, and concurred on the need for G20-level cooperation to resolve food and energy issues. However, no solutions at the G20 level were proposed. This contrasts with the 2009 global financial crisis when international cooperation including the G20 helped overcome the economic crisis.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Even at this G20 summit, where major leaders will be fully present, the likelihood of a joint statement among leaders is low. Although President Putin will not attend, the Russian government’s participation means that including condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a joint statement will inevitably cause conflict. If the statement does not address the Ukraine war, currently the greatest global geopolitical risk, the prevailing view is that no joint statement among leaders will be issued at all. In that case, only a joint statement from the host countries might be released.

Traditionally, G20 summits begin with a group photo of all leaders, but this time even that seems unlikely. The Guardian reported that leaders do not want to stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia for the photo. Although President Putin is absent, the presence of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov alone makes other countries visibly uncomfortable.

Earlier, at the G20 foreign ministers meeting held in Bali in July, Lavrov stormed out after criticism of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting global food crisis, denying Russia's responsibility for the food shortage. Just before the G20 summit, at the ASEAN summit held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Lavrov also claimed that the United States and Western countries are militarizing Southeast Asia to counter the interests of Russia and China.