[US Midterm Elections] Biden Breathes Sigh of Relief, Trump Furious, DeSantis Strengthens Position

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] U.S. President Joe Biden, who was cornered by the so-called 'economic judgment theory,' has breathed a sigh of relief. Former President Donald Trump, who wanted to use the midterm elections as a grand presidential campaign kickoff, was enraged. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a 'presidential hopeful' within the Republican Party, secured his re-election early, solidifying his position. The U.S. November 8 midterm elections not only reshaped congressional power but also brought different outcomes for major contenders aiming for the 2024 presidency. Some smiled, while others cried.

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◆Biden Breathes a Sigh of Relief, Early Lame Duck Avoided

As of the afternoon of the 9th (local time), the day after the midterm elections, the vote count atmosphere across the U.S. suggests a likely 'split control' scenario with the Senate held by Democrats and the House by Republicans. Contrary to initial predictions that Republicans would take both chambers, the anticipated 'Red Wave' did not materialize, and President Biden appears to have escaped an early lame duck crisis.

The New York Times (NYT) reported that despite spreading economic judgment sentiments and low approval ratings, President Biden received the best midterm election results in 20 years, unlike his predecessors. Former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump lost 63 and 40 House seats respectively during midterms held with approval ratings in the mid-40s, resulting in defeats. In contrast, Biden is evaluated to have performed better than expected in a midterm election typically seen as a referendum against the ruling party.

Notably, the Democratic victory in the Pennsylvania Senate race, one of the most competitive battlegrounds, carries significant symbolism. This could reduce the political damage aimed at President Biden. The NYT conveyed the atmosphere, stating, "For a president who anticipated a massive defeat, today's results must have brought great relief." The previously highlighted doubts about Biden's re-election prospects are also expected to diminish. President Biden is scheduled to make a public statement regarding the midterm election results later today.

However, overcoming the crisis does not mean the end. The ruling Democrats lost the House majority in this election, and the president's approval rating remains low. Even though the Senate was retained, with Republicans controlling the House, disruptions to the Biden administration's governance are inevitable. Biden's openly hinted re-election bid is also expected to face challenges. According to CNN exit polls, 67% of voters expressed a desire for President Biden not to run for re-election in 2024.

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◆Angry Trump: "The Problem Is Bad Candidates"

Former President Trump, who planned to leverage this election victory for a re-election bid, is expected to face setbacks in his future political moves. Trump had confidently predicted a "massive Red Wave," but the Republican results fell short of expectations.

CNN reported, citing close aides, that Trump expressed anger by shouting over the unexpectedly strong Democratic performance. Particularly, when Mehmet Oz, whom he publicly supported in Pennsylvania, lost, Trump reportedly lashed out at the staff who recommended Oz and at his wife, Melania Trump. Additionally, Trump's camp attributed the Republicans' failure to achieve a landslide victory to "bad candidates," attempting to shift election responsibility onto individual candidates.

Consequently, Trump's strategy to solidify the so-called 'Trump momentum' by officially announcing his presidential candidacy on the 15th, based on the expected Red Wave, is likely to face obstacles.

Some voices attribute the Republicans' failure to secure a landslide victory despite a favorable environment for regime judgment to Trump himself. Politico reported, "Candidates backed by former President Trump struggled much more than typical Republican candidates," adding, "Without his involvement, the Republican Party might have achieved better results." Political analyst Chuck Goplin stated, "If the candidates supported by former Vice President Mike Pence, not Trump, had run as Republicans, the party would have secured easy victories." Besides Oz, Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker, a former football star, also failed to benefit from the Trump effect.

However, local media predict that Trump is unlikely to change his 2024 presidential bid schedule, as postponing it would be seen as admitting electoral underperformance. In a post on his social network service Truth Social, which he created, he self-assessed, "In some ways, it's a bit disappointing, but from my personal perspective, it is a very big victory." This is interpreted as drawing a line against responsibility directed at him while building public opinion that the party performed well thanks to him, thereby strengthening his justification for running.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

◆DeSantis Solidifies Position... Next Major Republican Presidential Hopeful

If former President Trump's standing within the party narrows due to the midterm results, Governor DeSantis is the primary alternative. Considered a leading presidential hopeful within the Republican Party, he secured re-election early in the vote count, with a remarkable 20 percentage point lead in votes.

The New York Times (NYT) reported, "Having firmly secured Republican control in Florida, once considered a battleground, he has solidified his reputation as a presidential hopeful."

Governor DeSantis is regarded as the strongest rival to former President Trump in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential race within the Republican Party. During his governorship, he implemented conservative policies opposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates, building support among conservatives. This month, hedge fund CEO Ken Griffin of Citadel, which supports Republican political funding, publicly endorsed Governor DeSantis.

Especially as various legal risks surrounding former President Trump continue, voices supporting DeSantis as an alternative have grown louder recently. Just before the midterms, Trump mockingly called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and openly warned, "If he runs (for president), he could get hurt very badly."

Local media also evaluated DeSantis's election night party at the Tampa Convention Center as more of a preview of his 2024 presidential bid than a mere celebration of re-election. They reported that DeSantis, confident of his victory early in the midterms, recently attended numerous political rallies not only for his own campaign but also for other Republican candidates in different states.

DeSantis's close aides have stated that he is considering a presidential run. However, DeSantis has not yet announced any plans to run in the 2024 presidential election.