[US Midterm Elections] Why Did the Red Wave Remain a 'Ripple'? ... Analysis of Last-Minute Anti-Trump Rally

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] "It was not the expected 'Red Wave' (Republican wave)."

In the U.S. midterm elections on November 8, where the so-called 'economic judgment' was the main topic, the anticipated Republican Red Wave did not clearly materialize. While the Republicans are expected to regain the majority in the House for the first time in four years, the results fell somewhat short of expectations for the GOP, which aimed for complete control of Congress by emphasizing a judgment against the administration. Locally, the last-minute consolidation of the 'anti-Trump' forces is cited as a cause.

◆Looking at the vote count... Red Wave falls short of expectations, likely split control with Dems in Senate and GOP in House

As of the morning of the 9th (local time), the day after the midterm elections, the nationwide vote count atmosphere suggests a likely scenario of 'Sangminhagong' (Senate Democrat - House Republican), where the Democrats and Republicans split control of the two chambers that Democrats had dominated.

According to CNN, as of 10:15 a.m. Eastern Time, the Republicans have secured 201 seats and the Democrats 179 seats out of the total 435 House seats. To control the House, a majority of 218 seats is required. CNN reported that the Republicans need to win 14 battleground districts in addition to their strongholds.

At the same time, the Senate remains highly competitive, and the Red Wave is not as clear as expected. In the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, the Senate race was extremely close, with the vote margin between the two candidates fluctuating within 1 percentage point, ultimately resulting in Democrat John Fetterman securing victory. Considering the incumbent senator was a Republican, this is a painful loss for the GOP.

Another major battleground, the Georgia Senate race, will proceed to a runoff in December, as neither candidate secured a majority. The Georgia Senate race has been regarded as a critical battleground determining which party will hold the Senate majority. Politico reported, "The path for Republicans to gain Senate majority has narrowed," adding, "The Senate races are expected to hinge on Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin." To hold the Senate majority, 51 seats are needed, but the ruling Democrats are in a relatively advantageous position since holding 50 seats allows the Vice President, as the Senate President, to cast tie-breaking votes.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of former President Trump, said in an interview with NBC, "This election was definitely not a 'Republican wave.'"

The Democrats are also performing unexpectedly well in gubernatorial races. Out of 36 states holding governor elections, Republicans have secured 24 victories and Democrats 22. The Democrats have defended 13 states currently governed by Democrats, including Maine, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, California, and Hawaii, and have recaptured Massachusetts and Maryland, which had Republican governors.

Notably, in the unexpectedly competitive New York gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican House Representative Lee Zeldin by a comfortable margin. New York, a representative blue state with many Democratic supporters, had been watched closely as the Republican candidate showed rapid gains ahead of the midterms, raising the possibility of a Red Wave. Foreign media noted that losing the New York governorship to Republicans would have been a symbolic blow to the Democrats.

For the Republicans, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, mentioned as a potential next GOP presidential candidate, secured an early reelection victory the day before. Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who served as White House Press Secretary during Donald Trump's presidency, became the first female governor of Arkansas.

◆Why was there no Red Wave? 'Economic judgment' also a warning to Republicans

Besides the already confirmed Republican takeover of the House, the Democrats' unexpectedly strong performance in the Senate has led local media to conclude that there was no Red Wave. The Democrats also breathed a sigh of relief as the forecast of a complete defeat faded. The New York Times (NYT) reported, "Despite the highest inflation in 40 years and an unpopular president, all factors unfavorable to the Democrats, the Republicans only managed a wave."

This is interpreted as U.S. voters, while giving the Republicans a nod in this election with a strong anti-administration sentiment, also sending a warning signal to both parties.

Locally, there is little disagreement that the main reason the Democrats lost the House majority to the Republicans was the worsening economy, including inflation. According to exit polls conducted by Emerson Research on behalf of U.S. broadcasters CNN, NBC, and ABC, 32% of respondents cited inflation as the key factor influencing their vote. This was followed by abortion (27%), crime (12%), gun policy (12%), and immigration (10%). Forty-six percent of voters said their household financial situation had worsened compared to two years ago, while only 18% said it had improved. An AP poll also found that 8 out of 10 voters expressed concern about inflation.

The fact that the Republicans took control of the House, which holds budgetary and legislative powers, is seen as a form of 'economic judgment.' The Biden administration is expected to face strong checks from the House for the remaining two years of its term, weakening its governing momentum.

However, voters did not hand over the Senate to the Republicans. Despite the economy being the biggest issue, the absence of a Red Wave confirms that voters preferred the Democrats on issues such as abortion and protecting democracy. The Republicans' emphasis on election denial narratives since the 2020 presidential election increased concerns among voters that "democracy is under threat," and their stance on abortion bans also alienated voters, analysts say.

The NYT reported, "The Democrats emphasized abortion rights, healthcare, and social security," adding, "While the economy and inflation had the greatest impact on the election, abortion was also a powerful issue." More than 60% of voters who expressed dissatisfaction or anger over the Supreme Court's June decision to overturn Roe v. Wade supported the Democrats.

Additionally, as election day approached, the rise of former President Trump paradoxically helped consolidate Democratic support. Disappointed Democratic voters with the current Biden administration rallied at the last minute with the sentiment of "Anyone but Trump."

The Republicans' failure to achieve a landslide victory despite favorable conditions for an anti-administration judgment cannot exclude the influence of former President Trump. In this election, more than 225 candidates for the Senate, House, governorships, and state secretary positions who supported Trump's claims that the last presidential election was fraudulent ran but underperformed expectations.

In Georgia's gubernatorial race, Republican incumbent Brian Kemp comfortably defeated the Democrat, but in the Senate race in the same state, Republican Herschel Walker, strongly supported by Trump, failed to secure a majority. Kemp had refused Trump's demand for a recount in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In New Hampshire, Governor Chris Sununu, who criticized Trump's election fraud claims, was reelected, while pro-Trump Republican Don Bolduc lost.

Politico reported, "Candidates backed by former President Trump struggled much more than regular Republican candidates," adding, "Without his involvement, the Republicans might have achieved better results." Political analyst Chuck Goplin said, "If the candidates supported by former Vice President Mike Pence rather than Trump had run as Republicans, the GOP would have secured an easy victory."

Amid the poor performance of pro-Trump candidates, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, mentioned as a next presidential contender within the GOP, secured an early reelection victory by a 20-point margin. He is considered the strongest rival to former President Trump in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election within the Republican Party.