[US Midterm Elections] "The Issue is the Economy" Judgment Theory Strikes Hard... Is Biden Cornered?

On the 8th, the day of the U.S. midterm elections (local time), a voter at a polling station in Hillsborough, Virginia, is casting a ballot while wearing a red hat, the symbol of the Republican Party, with former President Donald Trump's name on it.

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] In the United States' November 8 midterm elections, the so-called 'economic judgment theory' has emerged, delivering a strong blow to the Joe Biden administration. Early vote counts have shown signs of a 'Red Wave'?a Republican surge?taking control of both the House and Senate, making it crucial whether the ruling Democratic Party can pull off a last-minute comeback to at least retain the Senate.

In the midterm elections held on the 8th (local time), economic issues such as inflation appeared to sway voters' sentiments. According to exit polls conducted by Emerson Research on behalf of American broadcasters CNN, NBC, and ABC, 32% of respondents cited inflation as the key factor influencing their vote. This was followed by abortion issues (27%), crime (12%), gun policy (12%), and immigration issues (10%).

Forty-six percent of voters said their household financial situation had worsened compared to two years ago, while only 18% said it had improved. An AP News survey also showed that 8 out of 10 voters expressed concerns about inflation. The New York Times (NYT) assessed that "the economy and inflation influenced the majority of voters' minds."

This voter sentiment is clearly reflected in the early vote count results. Looking at the atmosphere of the House elections in key states where counting is underway as of that night, Republican candidates have been confirmed winners in states including Kentucky, Florida, Indiana, South Carolina, and Virginia. If the current trend continues, the Republican Party is expected to comfortably surpass the House majority threshold of 218 seats, marking a recapture after four years.

The Senate race is continuing as a 'neck-and-neck' contest as predicted. In the gubernatorial elections, Ron DeSantis, a 'Republican presidential hopeful,' secured an early victory as governor of Florida.

As of 8:30 PM Eastern Time on the 8th (10:30 AM Korea Time on the 9th), the House election vote count status. Red indicates confirmed Republican wins, and blue indicates confirmed Democratic wins. [Source: Screenshot from CNN broadcast]

In the midterm elections held just before President Biden's term midpoint, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are newly elected. Depending on the results, the Biden administration's policy momentum could be hindered, affecting key policies such as abortion rights, immigration, and fiscal spending. In the worst case, an 'early lame duck' scenario could become inevitable. This could also have repercussions extending into the 2024 presidential election.

However, since the vote count is still in its early stages and the Senate race remains extremely close, it is premature to definitively conclude the outcomes for both chambers. Early voting reached 45 million, the highest ever for a midterm election. Local media have also warned of early counting illusions. AP News reported, "Signs of Republican advantage are appearing in many ways," but added, "Whether the Red Wave will be a wave or a tsunami remains to be seen." The New York Times (NYT) reported, "It may take several days to get accurate vote counts."

The outline of the election results is expected to gradually emerge around midnight that night (2 p.m. KST on the 9th). Notable battleground states include Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia.