[China Xi Jinping 3rd Term] 'Xi's Advisor' Former Li Chang Faces Dismissal Crisis → Rapid Rise as Premier Candidate

Unable to Stop COVID-19 Spread Leading to Shanghai Lockdown
Economic Impact Causes 0.4% Growth in Q2 and Responsibility Debate
Strong 'Xijajun' Line Skips Vice Premier and Appoints as Prime Minister

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyun-jung] As Chinese President Xi Jinping appointed Li Qiang, Party Secretary of Shanghai, as the new Premier of the State Council, attention is focused on the implications of the leadership lineup for Xi Jinping's third term. Although there had been predictions that Li Qiang would be dismissed for his responsibility in failing to prevent the spread of COVID-19, which led to the lockdown of Shanghai, he instead became the protagonist of a dramatic promotion. With Premier Li Keqiang, who had shown differences of opinion with President Xi on economic policies, confirmed to retire, it is interpreted that President Xi is attempting to strengthen his power by placing the 'Xijun' faction, composed of his own allies, at the forefront.

On the 23rd, the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party held its first plenary session (1st Plenum) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in the morning and announced the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee at a press conference held immediately afterward. The order in which the new Standing Committee members appeared on the stage at the press conference allows speculation about their power ranking and roles. On that day, Li Qiang, Party Secretary of Shanghai, was introduced as the designated Premier of the State Council, effectively the second most powerful person after President Xi.

Li Qiang, classified as a core member of the 'Xijun' faction, was appointed as secretary to Xi Jinping when Xi served as Party Secretary of Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2007, assisting him closely. He then served as Deputy Secretary of Zhejiang Province, Party Secretary of Jiangsu Province, and in 2017 became Party Secretary of Shanghai. The position of Shanghai Party Secretary had been almost monopolized by the 'Shanghai Gang,' a network centered around former President Jiang Zemin, so Li Qiang's appointment as a core figure of the Xijun faction was notable at the time.

Li Qiang's appointment as Premier appears to indicate that the key criterion for Xi Jinping's third-term personnel selection was 'loyalty.' Especially this year, due to the failure to respond effectively to COVID-19, Shanghai, the economic capital, was locked down, resulting in China's economic growth rate falling to 0.4% in the second quarter, which sparked responsibility debates and dismissal rumors surrounding Li Qiang.

Moreover, Li Qiang's relatively young age of 63 and his appointment to the Premier position without serving as Vice Premier first?breaking the unwritten rule of the Communist Party?strengthen this analysis. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, only Zhou Enlai, the first Premier, and Hua Guofeng, the second Premier, have ascended to the Premier position without first serving as Vice Premier. Bloomberg recently reported, "The most controversial move is appointing Li Qiang, who led the Shanghai lockdown, as Premier," explaining that "this implies that loyalty is the most important factor for Xi Jinping in promotions, and doubts about economic policy will also arise."

Wang Yang, Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, who was also confirmed to retire along with Premier Li Keqiang, had been considered the most likely candidate for Premier before the Party Congress opened. He has experience as Vice Premier of the State Council and is regarded within the top leadership as knowledgeable about people's livelihood, the economy, and foreign trade. Compared to Li Qiang, Wang's disadvantage lies in being from the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction, like former President Hu Jintao and Premier Li Keqiang, rather than the Xijun faction, which suggests a lower degree of loyalty.

President Xi introduced the Standing Committee members for his third term in order: following Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection; Wang Huning, Secretary of the Central Secretariat; Cai Qi, Party Secretary of Beijing; Ding Xuexiang, Director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee; and Li Xi, Party Secretary of Guangdong Province. All of these are representative figures classified as close associates of President Xi.

Hu Chunhua, Vice Premier and once designated as the 'next next generation' leader by former President Hu Jintao, was not selected for the top leadership. Although Hu Chunhua's name appeared on the list of the 20th Central Committee announced the previous day and he was initially mentioned alongside Chairman Wang and Secretary Li as a candidate for the next Premier, he was considered a target of checks and balances due to his classification as a member of the Communist Youth League faction.