"Restoration of Cream Bridge Expected to Take Several Months... Russia Faces Substantial and Symbolic Blow"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Crimean Bridge (Kerch Strait Bridge) partially collapsed due to an explosion on the 8th (local time), and major foreign media outlets predicted that this would deliver both practical and symbolic blows to Russia, which is invading Ukraine.

The Crimean Bridge is a bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has occupied since 2014, and the Russian mainland. Without this bridge, it is pointed out that the Russian forces occupying parts of southern and eastern Ukraine and engaged in battles with the Ukrainian military will face difficulties in supply.

The British Guardian noted that this bridge played an important role not only for the Crimean Peninsula but also for supplying other southern Ukrainian frontlines recently recaptured from Russian occupation. Although it is not impossible to use railways connected to the port city of Melitopol or to use ships and air transport, it is inevitable that there will be significant gaps in safety and transport capacity.

The US New York Times reported, "If passage through this bridge is disrupted, it could have a serious impact on Russia's ability to wage war in southern Ukraine." In this regard, David Mackenzie, Technical Director of the Danish bridge design and construction firm COWI, told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in an interview that the explosion damaged the structure of the Crimean Bridge and that full restoration could take months. Even if the railway reopens, load weight restrictions are expected. He explained, "It was a fairly large fire, so there will be an impact on the strength of the bridge's steel structure," adding, "The steel on the bridge deck likely received heat beyond its tolerance limits."

Considering the strategic and symbolic significance of the Crimean Bridge, Ukraine has repeatedly threatened to destroy the bridge since Russia's invasion in February. However, it is still unclear whether this explosion is related to Ukraine. US CNN suggested that the explosion appears to have been planned and pointed out that the resulting suspension of passage means that Russian President Vladimir Putin will have to bring forward by several weeks the timing of strategic decisions regarding the occupation of southern Ukraine.

The Russian military is expected to face disruptions not only in supply but also in troop deployment. The Crimean Peninsula has been used by Russian forces as a staging ground for assembling troops for attacks on Ukraine. Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zahorodniuk claimed that due to the collapse of the Crimean Bridge, Russia now has to form combat units within its own territory and move them longer distances to deploy in Ukraine.

This explosion is also analyzed to have dealt a symbolic blow to Russia and Putin. According to the Guardian, President Putin had dreamed of building this bridge across several eras, including the Imperial Russia period, with ideas emerging in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s but never realized until now. He emphasized the historical significance of the opening by saying, "Thanks to your hard work and talent, a miracle has been achieved."

CNN pointed out that as Russia's invasion of Ukraine faces difficulties, President Putin's position within Russia appears to be the most vulnerable since he took office in 2000. Some speculate that Putin may take retaliatory measures to maintain face and strengthen his position within Russia. CNN warned, "If Putin refuses to admit failure and escalates the situation, the attempt to invade Ukraine or Putin's regime itself could face a 'complete collapse.'"