[Preview of US Midterm Elections②] Top 5 Issues Including Inflation and Abortion... Ultimately, the Core Is 'Economy'

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Seulgina Jo] "After seeing the federal Supreme Court's decision that disregarded women's right to self-determination, I vowed with my friends living in other states that we would all definitely vote in this midterm election."

Mr. Brooke, in his 20s, originally from the southern United States and currently residing in Brooklyn, New York, pointed to 'abortion' as the biggest issue in the midterm election, which is just a month away on the 8th (local time). He said, "It's somewhat embarrassing, but personally, I am not interested in the results from New York State," adding, "I'm curious about the results in Texas (which leans conservative) and Pennsylvania (a battleground state), so these days I have conversations with friends from those areas," sharing the atmosphere.

Michael, who has operated a business in Queens, New York for over 30 years, emphasized, "Of course, the economy is the first priority." While there are various issues such as abortion and guns, the most unavoidable consideration is livelihood. He sighed, saying, "Inflation has soared, and labor costs have become too burdensome," and "I was relieved that gas prices recently dropped a bit, but I worry they might rise again." Korean-American Grace Jo also mentioned, "For the majority of voters who are not strongly political, economic issues like inflation inevitably sway the vote."

The November 8 midterm election, which will determine the power of the U.S. Congress, is about a month away. In this election, five major issues are cited: persistent inflation, abortion rights following the federal Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade, judicial risks surrounding former President Donald Trump, illegal immigration, and the judgment of President Joe Biden's administration.

◆Soaring Inflation Fuels Biden's Economic Responsibility Debate

The Hill, a congressional-focused media outlet, pointed out that these five issues could determine the election outcome, especially highlighting inflation as the biggest political responsibility facing the Democratic Party. Various recent polls measuring President Biden's approval ratings show particularly negative public opinion regarding inflation. In an Ipsos poll conducted in August, only 29% supported Biden's handling of inflation.

The reason President Biden named a bill, a scaled-down version of the 'Build Back Better (BBB)' plan focusing on climate change response and drug price reductions, the 'Inflation Reduction Act' was a move conscious of the responsibility for soaring inflation. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August rose 8.3% compared to the same month last year.

The Hill noted, "Unlike other issues, inflation affects all voters, including moderates who do not move according to political leanings, making it a potentially more fatal political issue." Locally, evaluations suggest that President Biden's approval ratings fluctuate according to trends in inflation, including gasoline prices.

According to an NPR poll released on the 6th, 37% of American voters cited inflation as the top issue. This was followed by protecting democracy (27%), abortion (13%), immigration (12%), and healthcare (10%). Notably, over 50% of Republican supporters mentioned inflation.

The soaring inflation issue, coupled with recent concerns about economic slowdown, is also spreading the narrative of judging the Biden administration. Midterm elections held in the second year of an administration typically have a strong character of judgment on the incumbent government. Historically, U.S. midterm elections have been regarded as the 'graveyard of sitting presidents' for this reason.

◆Abortion Issue Becomes a Rallying Point for the Progressive Camp

While persistent inflation is the Achilles' heel for President Biden and the Democratic Party, the abortion issue is a key point for the Republican Party.

Abortion rights became a rallying point for the progressive camp after the conservative-controlled federal Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, which had recognized abortion as a constitutional right for women. Following various legislative achievements and a rebound in President Biden's approval ratings, the midterm election, initially expected to be a landslide victory for the Republicans, has entered a state of uncertainty.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

On the weekend, thousands of protesters marched in Washington DC to support women's abortion rights ahead of the midterm election. Some protesters wore blue clothing to signify support for electing Democrats who would push abortion-related legislation in the election. Delia Coleman, Deputy Director of ERA, emphasized, "It's important in every election, but this year it really became an issue," adding, "If you don't want to lose freedom, healthcare, and childcare, it's time to stand up."

Various polls have already confirmed that over 60% of respondents support Roe v. Wade. The rejection of a state constitutional amendment to remove abortion protection provisions in Kansas, a Republican stronghold, in August is also seen as an example demonstrating the political influence of abortion rights. As a result, local analyses suggest that support for federal legislation could unite not only the progressive camp but also swing voters.

President Biden and the Democratic Party are also making efforts to highlight the abortion issue prominently. Early this month, President Biden attended a task force meeting to guarantee abortion access and stated, "We will not stand by while Republicans implement policies that threaten access to basic healthcare," which is a representative example.

◆Trump's Judicial Risks and Illegal Immigration Also Cited as Issues

This midterm election is simultaneously a midterm evaluation of the incumbent president and is regarded as a 'mini presidential election' between President Biden and his political rival, former President Donald Trump. The impact is inevitable until the next presidential election scheduled for 2024.

Among these, the judicial risks surrounding former President Trump, which have intensified following the Mar-a-Lago resort search and seizure, are also cited as major issues. The Hill analyzed, "The search and seizure have already exacerbated the legal problems facing former President Trump," adding, "Evaluations of former President Trump are so fixed that they may not move many voters, but the impact on the primary election frame, which can directly affect turnout, has been confirmed." In the earlier Republican primaries, candidates classified as pro-Trump made significant advances, further increasing Trump's presence within the party.

President Biden, who initially refrained from overt criticism of former President Trump early in his term, has recently increased his offensive by visiting the battleground state of Pennsylvania last month and criticizing Trump and his supporters as a "threat to democracy." Former President Trump responded by calling President Biden the "enemy of the nation."

Additionally, illegal immigration has long been a contentious issue among conservative voters more than progressive voters during elections. In an August YouGov poll, only 30% of voters supported President Biden's immigration policies. Particularly, overwhelmingly negative opinions were confirmed among Republican supporters. Earlier, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the number of illegal immigrants arrested at the southern border is expected to reach a record high for the fiscal year ending in September. The Hill reported, "Many voters are clearly concerned about the numerous illegal border crossings currently occurring." Other issues such as the surge in crime after the pandemic, guns, and climate change response are also cited as election issues dividing the progressive and conservative camps.

◆Guns and Regulations Mentioned, but Ultimately 'Economy' is Key

An analysis by the Brookings Institution last month of the issues most frequently mentioned by candidates from both parties in the primaries found that ▲Democrats focused on healthcare, abortion, and climate change, while ▲Republicans emphasized economic judgment including inflation, immigration, guns, taxes, and regulations.

The Brookings Institution noted, "Climate change was a major agenda for Democratic candidates, but was hardly mentioned by Republican candidates," adding, "Even the Republican candidates who mentioned it mostly expressed concerns about the negative economic impact of climate change responses." On the other hand, immigration was a major agenda for Republican candidates. Additionally, Republican candidates emphasized that lowering taxes and eliminating unnecessary regulations are best for the economy.

However, there is a widespread assessment that ultimately the 'economy' will decide the vote. Axios, citing a joint poll with Ipsos, reported, "What Americans worry about most is economic deterioration."

If the Democrats control Congress, more than 4 out of 10 (43%) fear that economic and inflation problems could worsen. Much of this opinion is based on Republican supporters, but 38% of independents also share this concern. Conversely, if Republicans control Congress, 24% of respondents also believe economic and inflation problems could worsen. Another 24% fear that President Biden's political momentum will disappear. This implies inevitable repercussions across politics, economy, and society.

Mallory Newall, Vice President of Ipsos, emphasized, "The economy remains the biggest issue facing the United States."