[Comprehensive] North Korea Launches Another Missile... South Korea and US Prepare Next Countermeasure Card

US Aircraft Carrier Reagan Returns to Korean Peninsula Waters, North Korea Responds with Missile Launch
If North Korea Escalates Provocations, Strategic Assets Deployed at a Scale Different from 2017

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Military Specialist Reporter Yang Nak-gyu, Reporter Bae Kyung-hwan] Just two days after North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), it again fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) into the East Sea. This move came in response to the return of the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan (CVN-76, 103,000 tons class) to the waters around the Korean Peninsula. The South Korean and U.S. military authorities are closely monitoring the possibility of a North Korean nuclear test and are considering escalating their response measures, including the deployment of strategic bombers.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced on the 6th, "From around 6:01 a.m. to 6:23 a.m. today, two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) were detected launched from the Samseok area near Pyongyang into the East Sea." The first SRBM had a flight distance of about 350 km, an altitude of about 80 km, and a speed of approximately Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound), while the second missile was detected flying about 800 km, at an altitude of about 60 km, and at a speed of approximately Mach 6. North Korea usually uses Sunan Airport when launching missiles from Pyongyang, making the appearance of the Samseok area as a missile launch site a first.

North Korea's missile launches on this day are analyzed as a show of force in response to the redeployment of the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the East Sea, joint South Korea-U.S.-Japan military exercises, and discussions on North Korean ballistic missiles at the United Nations Security Council. Recently, South Korea, the U.S., and Japan conducted joint anti-submarine exercises to counter North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and another joint exercise involving the Ronald Reagan and others is scheduled to take place on the 6th in international waters of the East Sea.

President Yoon Suk-yeol expressed concern over North Korea's additional ballistic missile provocations, stating, "The security situation is not easy," and pledged, "We will thoroughly protect the lives and safety of our people based on a strong South Korea-U.S. alliance and South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation."

The Presidential Office also held an emergency National Security Council (NSC) Standing Committee meeting chaired by National Security Office Director Kim Sung-han to discuss response measures. NSC standing members noted that the provocation occurred amid a United Nations Security Council meeting discussing North Korea's ballistic missile launches, emphasizing that it is an unacceptable challenge to the international community and strongly condemned it.

Later in the afternoon, President Yoon is expected to have a phone call with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio to focus on coordinating responses to North Korean missile threats. They are likely to condemn North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile that passed over Japanese airspace the previous day and discuss close trilateral cooperation based on the South Korea-U.S. and U.S.-Japan alliances to respond to North Korean nuclear and missile provocations. Regarding this, President Yoon said, "It seems Japan is in quite an uproar because of the IRBM that passed over the Japanese archipelago; I expect there will be discussions on security issues." According to the Japanese Prime Minister's Office, Prime Minister Kishida had previously expressed a desire to communicate with South Korea on security matters following a phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden.

As military confrontations between South Korea, the U.S., and North Korea continue, tensions on the Korean Peninsula are expected to gradually escalate. North Korea has launched ballistic missiles 22 times and cruise missiles twice this year. Since the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, this marks the 10th missile launch, with intervals between launches becoming increasingly shorter.

There are also projections that North Korea is close to testing submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and new liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Observers believe that the seventh nuclear test, for which preparations were completed in May, is also imminent.

If North Korea intensifies its provocations, the U.S. is likely to implement extended deterrence measures. This means deploying assets such as ICBMs, strategic bombers like the B-2 and B-52, and strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs). When North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test in 2017, the U.S. unusually deployed three nuclear aircraft carriers?the Ronald Reagan, Theodore Roosevelt, and Nimitz?simultaneously to the Korean Peninsula.

Among these, the deployment of B-1B strategic bombers forward-deployed in Guam to the Korean Peninsula is considered a top priority. There are also expectations that B-52 or B-2 strategic bombers equipped with nuclear weapons will conduct simulated bombing drills as a warning to North Korea. Bombing exercises involving U.S. carrier-based aircraft and strategic bombers could take place at the Pilsung firing range in Gangwon Province or Jikdo in the West Sea. There is also a possibility of a show of force near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East Sea. The entry of nuclear submarines into South Korean ports may also be pursued. It is considered an effective measure for South Korean and U.S. military leaders to observe training of Minuteman III ICBMs and strategic bomber units on the U.S. mainland.

A military official said, "North Korea's provocative movements are being steadily detected, so it is expected that provocations will continue," adding, "South Korea and the U.S. are likely to be jointly considering ways to respond to these provocations."