[Comprehensive] North Korean Ballistic Missile Crosses Japanese Archipelago This Time

One Medium-Range Ballistic Missile Launched from Mujang-ri Area, Jagang Province, Passing Over Japanese Airspace
Japanese Government Issues 'J-Alert' for First Time in 5 Years... NSC States "Strict Response"
Range 5500 km... Targeting US Guam Base Over 3400 km from Pyongyang

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The ballistic missile launched by North Korea on the 4th passed over Japanese airspace. It is the first time in five years since September 15, 2017, that a missile fired by North Korea has passed over Japan, prompting the Japanese government to issue a 'J-ALERT' (J-ALERT: nationwide instant warning system) on the same day. J-ALERT refers to the immediate transmission of civil protection information to local governments via satellite.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, "On that day, North Korea launched one intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) around 7:23 a.m. from the Mu-pyeong-ri area in Jagang Province, which passed over Japanese airspace." The missile's flight distance was detected to be about 4,500 km, altitude about 970 km, and speed approximately Mach 17 (17 times the speed of sound). Detailed specifications are being precisely analyzed by South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities.

North Korea has recently launched short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) consecutively. However, the missile launched on this day was an IRBM, which has a longer range than SRBMs. This is the ninth missile launch since the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, and it launched a missile with a longer range that flew over the Japanese archipelago.

The missile fired on this day appears to have been launched at a normal angle. According to U.S. classification standards, the range of an IRBM is 3,000 to 5,500 km. The distance from Pyongyang to the U.S. territory of Guam is about 3,400 km, meaning North Korea can directly strike Guam in the Pacific, which serves as a launch base for U.S. strategic assets in the event of a Korean Peninsula contingency.

The Yongsan Presidential Office held a National Security Council (NSC) meeting chaired by Kim Sung-han, Director of the National Security Office, from 9 a.m. to discuss countermeasures. NSC participants defined North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile launch as a clear violation of UN Security Council resolutions and a serious provocation threatening peace on the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia, and internationally, strongly condemning it. President Yoon, who attended the NSC, pointed out, "This provocation by North Korea clearly violates the universal principles and norms of the UN," and ordered strict responses and the pursuit of corresponding measures through cooperation with the U.S. and the international community.

The Japanese government conveyed missile launch information to local governments and the public through the Em-Net alert system and J-ALERT. It issued evacuation orders to residents of Hokkaido, the northernmost part of the Japanese archipelago, and Aomori Prefecture, the northernmost part of Honshu, instructing them to "stay indoors or evacuate underground."

North Korea may launch various additional missiles in the future. Recently, North Korea has been testing and evaluating several types of SRBMs, including the North Korean version of the Iskander (KN-23), the North Korean version of the ATACMS (KN-24), and the super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25), by slightly varying flight altitude, distance, and speed in missile launches. It is estimated that North Korea currently possesses 17 types of missiles, including three types of ICBMs, two types of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), two types of IRBMs, and one type of medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM).

There is also a high possibility that North Korea will launch long-range ICBMs. In 2017, North Korea began launching IRBMs and then consecutively launched the Hwasong-15, an ICBM-class missile. North Korea launched the latest ICBMs on February 27, March 5, March 16, and May 25 of that year.

The military assesses that North Korea is likely to escalate provocations soon, including ICBM launches and possibly conducting the seventh nuclear test, which is considered to be in preparation. Many analyses suggest that the timing of the nuclear test will likely be between the end of this month, after the conclusion of the Chinese Communist Party Congress starting on the 16th, and the U.S. midterm elections on November 8. The National Intelligence Service also identified this period as a possible time for a nuclear test. This analysis is based on the idea that North Korea would consider China's "celebration" and aim to influence the U.S. elections, making this timing optimal for achieving political objectives through a nuclear test.

Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University said, "It seems North Korea is withdrawing its cautious stance since the outbreak of COVID-19 and has started full-speed advancement," adding, "Launching higher-intensity missiles now, after the conclusion of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan joint exercises, ultimately indicates a move toward securing nuclear capabilities."