This Year’s COVID-19 Deaths Already Four Times Last Year... Excess Deaths 35,000

2021 COVID-19 Deaths 5,030
From January to September 27 This Year, 22,709
"Lack of Medical Use Due to COVID-19
Likely Led to Excess Deaths"

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] Last year, the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the total number of deaths reached an all-time high since statistics began, and this year, after experiencing two waves of COVID-19 resurgence, the number of deaths is expected to increase even more significantly. This is due to a sharp rise not only in direct deaths caused by COVID-19 but also in deaths resulting from indirect effects. Experts have pointed out that responses to reduce deaths caused by these indirect effects must be implemented concurrently.

According to the 2021 Cause of Death Statistics released by Statistics Korea on the 28th, the number of deaths last year was 317,680, the highest since 1983. Among these, COVID-19 deaths were recorded at 5,030, about five times higher than the 950 deaths in 2020. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among total deaths was approximately 1.6%.

This year, after the first and second largest waves of COVID-19 resurgence, the total number of deaths is expected to increase further. With about one-third of the year remaining, the cumulative COVID-19 deaths from January 1 to September 27 reached 22,709, already more than four times the number from last year. The increase in deaths was influenced by the surge in confirmed cases during the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves in February and March, followed by the sixth wave in the summer.

‘Excess deaths,’ which include not only direct deaths from COVID-19 infection but also deaths caused by indirect effects of COVID-19, have been steadily increasing since September last year. Excess deaths refer to deaths exceeding the maximum number recorded in the past three years. From the beginning of this year until the 27th of last month, excess deaths totaled 35,459. Excluding direct deaths from COVID-19, approximately 10,000 excess deaths are attributed to indirect effects.

Experts are focusing on deaths caused by lack of medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic among the excess deaths. The concept of excess deaths includes natural increases in deaths due to aging, but also factors such as deaths of COVID-19 patients who were not tested and died, and deaths caused by reduced medical service availability due to COVID-19. According to a study by Lee Heung-hoon, Director of Strategic Planning at the National Medical Center, the number of cancer patients receiving treatment at the National Medical Center this year decreased by 53.7% compared to 2019.

Professor Kim Young-sam of Yonsei University College of Medicine explained at a recent joint forum on ‘COVID-19 Occurrence and Autumn Measures’ that “the 2020 cause of death statistics showed a significant increase in deaths from ischemic heart disease per 100,000 population compared to previous years,” adding, “This data suggests reduced access to medical care.” Professor Kim also noted, “According to a survey by the Korean Society of Critical Care Nursing last year, 466 general ICU beds were reduced across 45 hospitals to create COVID-19 ICU beds.”

Although deaths and excess deaths due to COVID-19 have increased, the fatality rate has decreased to 0.11% as the number of confirmed cases has also grown. Experts emphasize that the quarantine response system should be changed based on data such as excess deaths rather than just the fatality rate. Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital stated, “Both overseas and domestic data show that excess deaths are about twice the cumulative deaths,” adding, “We should not focus solely on quarantine measures aimed at managing the fatality rate.”