"COVID-19 7th Wave Could Come Again... Indoor Masks to Be Lifted at Once"

Director Jeong Gi-seok, "Immunity Maintained for 4-5 Months in 15 Million Recently Vaccinated or Infected"
Reviewing Easing of Quarantine Measures Such as Post-Entry Testing and Nursing Hospital Visits

[Image source=Yonhap News]

"There is no guarantee that the 7th wave of (COVID-19) will not occur. The indoor mask-wearing mandate needs to be maintained a bit longer."

Jung Ki-seok, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters COVID-19 Special Response Team and chairman of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee (pictured), forecasted on the 26th that even if the 7th resurgence occurs around the end of this year or early next year, about 12 million people who recently acquired immunity will have a low probability of infection. He also encouraged vaccination, stating that an additional 3 million people can gain immunity through the updated vaccine.

At the COVID-19 Special Response Team briefing that day, Director Jung said, "Immunity is crucial in determining how quickly and how strongly the 7th wave will come," adding, "Although the national antibody positivity survey showed that over 90% have antibodies, having antibodies and actual immune capability are different."

Since July 1, about 3 million people have completed their 4th vaccination, and about 6.2 million people were confirmed positive during the summer resurgence (6th wave) after July 1. In addition, there are approximately 3.1 million undiagnosed infected individuals (hidden infections), and the number of people expected to receive the updated vaccine starting from October 11 is in the hundreds.

Director Jung explained, "These approximately 15 million people who were vaccinated or confirmed positive after July 1 have practical immunity lasting 4 to 5 months, so they are unlikely to be infected by the end of this year," adding, "It can be said that the probability of them leading the 7th wave or being confirmed positive during the 7th wave is very low."

However, Director Jung noted, "Including the estimated hidden infections during the 5th wave (Omicron major wave), about 23 million people had COVID-19 and acquired immunity, but the 6th wave started in July, just four months after the peak in March," and said, "Even though about half of the entire population had already been infected and had immunity, the 6th wave still came."

He also provided an analysis that receiving the updated vaccine developed targeting the BA.1.2 variant does not completely block the currently prevalent BA.5 variant.

Director Jung emphasized, "There is no guarantee that the next wave will not occur just because many people were infected a few months ago," adding, "It is hopeful that many people have immune capability, but no one can predict the timing and scale of the 7th wave, so we must thoroughly prepare for it."

On the 26th, near Seoul City Hall, some citizens were seen removing their masks while moving around following the lifting of the outdoor mask mandate. From this day, the mask-wearing obligation was also lifted at outdoor gatherings, performances, and sports stadiums with 50 or more attendees, marking the complete removal of the outdoor mask mandate after about 1 year and 5 months. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

Regarding the lifting of the indoor mask mandate, he said it is necessary to take a conservative approach in preparation for the possibility of the 7th wave. Director Jung, stating this as a personal opinion, said, "We cannot predict the 7th wave, but it is always good to be prepared, and disaster preparedness is always better to be somewhat excessive than insufficient."

He continued, "The indoor mask mandate should be lifted all at once after the 7th wave passes, whether it is severe or mild, and the situation stabilizes to some extent, to avoid confusion," supporting a 'temporary lifting' rather than a phased lifting as some have suggested. Director Jung emphasized, "There are opinions that masks should be removed starting with infants and toddlers for language development, but I think it will reduce confusion much more to set a specific time and lift the indoor mask mandate all at once."

Regarding additional easing of quarantine measures such as PCR testing after entry and resuming face-to-face visits at nursing hospitals, he said, "The mandatory test within one day after entry can be lifted once the situation stabilizes more," adding, "The advisory committee is reviewing the possibility of further opening nursing hospital visits."