North's Provocative Moves... Mini SLBM or Large SLBM?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] It has been reported that North Korea is preparing to launch submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) in the Sinpo area of South Hamgyong Province. With the launch of mini SLBMs or new submarines, it is possible to fire SLBMs of the "Pukguksong-3" class or higher.

Lee Jae-myung, Deputy Spokesperson of the Presidential Office, disclosed on the 23rd (local time) that President Yoon Suk-yeol, while presiding over a security situation briefing on board Air Force One upon returning from visits to the UK, the US, and Canada, identified signs and movements of North Korea's provocations, including SLBMs. It is unusual for the Presidential Office to preemptively reveal signs of North Korean provocations, which is interpreted as a warning message urging North Korea to refrain from provocations.

There is an analysis that North Korea's move to launch SLBMs may be a reaction to the arrival of the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) at the Busan operational base on the 23rd and the joint South Korea-US military exercises being conducted.

North Korea has launched Pukguksong-series SLBMs several times since around 2016 and recently test-fired a "mini SLBM." On May 7, three days before President Yoon's inauguration, North Korea fired one short-range ballistic missile presumed to be a mini SLBM from a submarine in the Sinpo maritime area. Prior to that, on October 19 last year, a mini SLBM was also launched from a submerged submarine.

Although North Korea has test-fired SLBMs multiple times, it is understood that it has not secured submarines capable of operational deployment of these missiles. Among the submarines currently operated by North Korea, the only one capable of mounting SLBMs is the Whale-class (2,000-ton class, Hero 8.24) modified from the old Romeo-class submarine. However, this too has never been verified for underwater launch capability during movement, and with only one launch tube, it is assessed that operational capability for SLBMs has not been proven.

Some suggest that the US-based North Korea specialist media 38 North claims, based on private satellite images, that six vessels including barges have gathered around the Sinpo shipyard, raising the possibility that preparations for launching a new submarine are underway. This movement may be related to preparations for SLBM launches. If SLBMs are launched from a new submarine, it is highly likely to be a "Pukguksong-3" class or higher SLBM.

North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un was seen pointing with his hand at a submarine under construction in July 2019. North Korea's new submarine is likely to be a 3,000-ton class. It is estimated that the new submarine is equipped with three vertical launch tubes for SLBMs. North Korea has unveiled large SLBMs such as "Pukguksong-4" and "5ㅅ" at military parades and weapons exhibitions. The Pukguksong-3, test-fired in 2019, was launched from an underwater barge.

A military official said, "North Korea, which declared the 'legalization of nuclear force' including preemptive nuclear strikes, is likely to launch SLBMs to demonstrate the completion of nuclear-armed submarines, so we are strengthening readiness."