Despite Growing Noise, China Clings to Zero-COVID... When Will Quarantine Easing Happen?

Prospects for Changes in Ilgakseon After the October Party Congress
Some Predict No Changes Until March Next Year

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyun-jung] In the early morning of the 18th, a bus traveling on a highway in Guizhou Province, southwestern China, overturned, resulting in 27 deaths out of 47 passengers. They were residents of Yunyan District, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, and the bus was en route to a quarantine facility related to COVID-19. "It's not the virus but the quarantine measures that are killing people." Negative public opinion spread following the accident news, and eventually, Guiyang city government officials publicly bowed their heads to apologize and promised to discipline those responsible. This is a rare public apology from the government, which has shown a tough stance by enforcing a zero-COVID policy with a zero-tolerance principle.

According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 25th, as such 'noise' has become frequent recently, dissatisfaction with the Chinese government's zero-COVID quarantine measures is growing.

Previously, during the Shanghai lockdown, some apartment complexes were welded shut to prevent residents from leaving, which spread on social media and sparked backlash. Earlier this month, despite a magnitude 6.8 earthquake in Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province, videos circulated showing administrators preventing residents from leaving their homes due to quarantine reasons, causing controversy. Complaints are emerging everywhere, from food shortages to medical system issues concerning vulnerable groups such as pregnant women and infants who are defenseless against the quarantine system.

Nie Liming, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law, wrote in a Baidu column recently, "The Guiyang accident is not an isolated incident. There are many irrationalities in the COVID-19 control processes in many cities. COVID-19 suppression should not break the boundaries of the law or affect the order and discipline of other fields," which received a sensational response but was soon deleted and is no longer accessible.

As of the 19th, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in mainland China stands at 5,226, which is relatively low compared to the United States (over about 1 million). In India, the official count has already exceeded 528,000, more than 100 times that of China, but the World Health Organization estimates the actual death toll to be ten times higher.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Huang Yanzhong, senior researcher in health at the Foreign Affairs Committee, warned, "China started zero-COVID to succeed in the fight against COVID-19, but after two and a half years, despite the disease's severity significantly decreasing, the policy has not changed. The secondary crises and unintended consequences caused by this approach are increasingly unjustifiable." He added, "With the 20th Party Congress approaching, local governments are relying more on lockdown tools rather than methods like vaccination."

Professor Qian Daoyin, a political commentator based in Shanghai, said, "COVID-19 control has become politicized," explaining, "In this system, decision-makers are the central party, local governments are executors, and health experts are collaborators." He further noted, "It is not surprising that Chinese leaders do not remove masks at international events." Indeed, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who recently embarked on his first overseas trip in about 1,000 days, took photos wearing masks with 12 leaders from various countries.

At the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II held on the 19th at Westminster Abbey in London, UK, Wang Qishan, Vice President of China, was the only foreign dignitary wearing a mask, drawing attention. Professor Qian analyzed this by saying, "It was a message to the world that the leaders and China will adhere to the zero-COVID policy and are confident it is the most effective model for pandemic suppression." He also predicted, "Even if the WHO declares the pandemic over, China will only abandon the zero-COVID policy one to two years later."

Although the WHO has officially mentioned "the end is in sight" as the actual death toll sharply declines, both inside and outside China, there is growing speculation that zero-COVID will not change significantly even after the Party Congress ends in mid-October. Goldman Sachs expects that quarantine measures will not be abruptly lifted until the first session of the 14th National People's Congress in March.