U.S. Department of Defense Confirms Contact Regarding Russia-North Korea Arms Deal
Analysis Suggests Western Export Controls Worsen Russia's Supply Shortage
North Korea Sees Benefits in Maintaining Ties with Russia... Potential for Expanded Trade
[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Yunjin Kim] It has been reported that Russia requested North Korea to supply weapons such as rockets and shells for the war in Ukraine. Foreign media analyzed that Russia is facing great difficulties in supplying military materials due to Western export controls and sanctions.
On the 6th (local time), the U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that Russia contacted North Korea to request ammunition. Patrick Ryder, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Defense, said at a regular briefing that day, "This shows Russia's perception of the operational plan and combat sustainability in the Ukraine war," adding, "The Department of Defense assesses that the situation is not going well for Russia."
Earlier, U.S. intelligence agencies announced in newly declassified information that Russia is preparing to purchase millions of shells and rockets from North Korea. The New York Times (NYT), which first reported this on the 5th (local time), did not disclose exact details about the weapons, transportation timing, or scale, but said, "Russia may also purchase additional North Korean military equipment beyond short-range rockets and shells in the future."
Russia's move to import military supplies is interpreted as evidence that it is being hit by Western export restrictions against Russia. Earlier this month, it was also revealed that Russia imported military drones from Iran. Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group think tank, elaborated to the U.S. Washington Post (WP), saying, "It shows that Russia is isolated enough to turn to outlier countries for low-tech weapons."
In particular, since North Korea's technological level is not high, Russia's 'desperate' situation is revealed in its contact with North Korea. Frederick Kagan, a military expert at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, told the NYT, "The 152mm shells and Soviet-style rockets produced by North Korea do not contain advanced technology," and "The only reason Russia is buying weapons from North Korea is probably because it cannot even produce the most basic supplies needed for the war."
On the other hand, there is also analysis that it is too early to say Russia is in a military crisis. Walting, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in the UK, told the U.S. North Korea specialist media NK News, "Even if there is no supply shortage, Russia has enough motive to purchase military supplies," suggesting, "It could be a measure to stockpile before ammunition runs out or to prevent Ukraine from securing them."
If Russia trades weapons with North Korea, it would violate United Nations resolutions introduced to curb North Korea's military expansion, such as UN Security Council Resolution 1874. Vedant Patel, senior spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, criticized, "All UN sanctions violations are serious, but it is particularly concerning that a permanent member of the Security Council is allowing such measures to drift."
Myunghyun Ko, a researcher at the Asan Institute, told NK News, "Russia may find it difficult to exert diplomatic influence as a permanent member of the Security Council," forecasting that Russia could face considerable burdens.
Conversely, the dominant opinion is that North Korea benefits from maintaining relations by trading weapons with Russia. The NYT pointed out that since North Korea is excluded from international trade due to global sanctions, it has little to lose even if a deal with Russia is made. Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, explained, "North Korea recognizes that it has been overly dependent on China and is seeking diversification. Maintaining relations with Russia is positive for North Korea."
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