Global Population Grows While South Korea's Population Declines... Elderly Ratio in Korea Approaches 50% by 2070

Current Population Status and Projections of the World and Korea

[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Son Seon-hee] It is projected that the global population will continue to increase, reaching 10.3 billion by 2070. In contrast, South Korea's population is on a declining trend, with the proportion of elderly people expected to approach 50% by 2070.

According to the "Current Status and Projections of the World and Korean Population" released by Statistics Korea on the 5th, the world population is expected to increase from 7.97 billion this year to 10.3 billion in 2070. During the same period, South Korea's population is expected to decrease from 52 million to 38 million.

This year, the population growth rates for the world and South Korea are approximately 0.83% and -0.23%, respectively. By 2040, the world’s growth rate is projected to be 0.65%, South Korea’s -0.35%, and by 2070, the world’s 0.18%, South Korea’s -1.24%.

The proportion of elderly people (aged 65 and over) is increasing globally. The share of elderly people in the world population is expected to rise from 9.8% this year to 20.1% in 2070.

In particular, the proportion of elderly people in South Korea is projected to increase from 17.5% this year to 46.4% in 2070. This means that by 2070, one in every two South Koreans will be elderly. Meanwhile, the working-age population proportion in South Korea peaked at 73.4% in 2012 after rising from 54.4% in 1970, then began to decline, and is expected to fall to 71.0% this year, 56.8% in 2040, and 46.1% by 2070.

As of last year, South Korea’s total fertility rate was 0.81, less than half of the global total fertility rate of 2.32. On the other hand, life expectancy in South Korea is 83.5 years (as of 2020), which is 13.5 years higher than the global life expectancy of 72 years.

As of this year, the country with the largest population in the world is China, with a total population of 1.43 billion, accounting for 17.9% of the world population. India ranks second with 1.42 billion (17.8%). South Korea ranks 29th in terms of population size.

By 2070, India is expected to become the most populous country in the world with 1.69 billion people. China’s population is projected to decrease to about 1.09 billion. South Korea, which has already entered a population decline, is expected to fall to 59th place in the world by population size in 2070.