"Shaking and Even Motion Sickness"... The Horror of Flying Gets Worse

[Asia Economy Reporter Sumi Hwang] Foreign media reports have indicated that the likelihood of turbulence has increased due to the effects of climate change. Turbulence, in particular, can pose a threat to aircraft in cruise, prompting some to call for stricter in-flight safety regulations.

Recently, CNN cited Professor Paul Williams of the University of Reading in the UK, who studies atmospheric science, to report this.

Turbulence is an irregular flow of air with varying directions and speeds, formed when large and small vortices occur within a steady airflow.

Such turbulence can impact aircraft in cruise, posing a threat. In fact, in 2019, an Air Canada passenger plane traveling from Canada to Australia encountered severe turbulence causing a sudden drop, injuring 35 people including passengers. In May, an Indian passenger plane caught in turbulence reportedly injured at least 15 passengers.

According to reports, about 5,500 flights in the United States experience large-scale turbulence annually. Professor Williams predicted this number will increase further. He said, "After running several computer simulations, it was predicted that severe turbulence will increase by about 2 to 3 times over the next few decades."

He particularly focused on clear-air turbulence that occurs during clear weather. Clear-air turbulence is considered the most dangerous because it appears without warning and is difficult to avoid. Professor Williams forecasted that such clear-air turbulence will increase significantly worldwide between 2050 and 2080. He said, "Generally, flights crossing the Atlantic Ocean can expect about 10 minutes of turbulence," adding, "This could increase to 20 or 30 minutes within a few decades."

Climate change was cited as a factor increasing the frequency and duration of turbulence. It is known that he has been researching the impact of climate change on turbulence since 2013.

Additionally, he predicted that longer flight times will lead to increased fuel consumption. Professor Williams stated, "Due to turbulence, the North Atlantic route connecting North America and Europe incurs an additional annual cost of $150 million (approximately 204.45 billion KRW)," warning, "As turbulence occurs more frequently, the burden on the industry will grow."

The aviation industry views such turbulence as a major cause threatening passenger safety. CNN reported that some voices call for changes in regulations, such as strengthening seatbelt use.

Meanwhile, studies addressing turbulence caused by climate change have been published before. Last year, an international research team from Nanjing University in China and the University of Toronto in Canada released findings indicating that global warming has increased the likelihood of aircraft encountering turbulence.

According to the researchers, pilots usually fly in the stratosphere, which is higher than the troposphere. The troposphere, the atmospheric layer closest to Earth, is unstable and produces weather phenomena such as rain, clouds, and snow, whereas the stratosphere allows relatively stable flight.

However, they explained that global warming has altered the thickness of the troposphere, making stable flight more difficult. The researchers stated, "As global warming causes the troposphere to rise, aircraft will need to increase cruising altitude for stable flight," adding, "If planes do not fly higher in the future, they face a higher risk of encountering turbulence during operation."