From Today, ROK-US Joint Exercises Begin... Focus on North Korean Provocations

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As South Korea and the United States begin the joint exercise 'Ulchi Freedom Shield' (UFS) from the 16th, attention is focused on whether North Korea will resume provocations.

According to the military on the day, South Korea and the U.S. will conduct a crisis management exercise, a preliminary drill for UFS, for four days starting from the day. The crisis management exercise assumes signs of a crisis situation such as war on the Korean Peninsula and allows South Korea and the U.S. to jointly practice procedures to resolve it politically and diplomatically. After the crisis management exercise ends, the main UFS exercise will be conducted in two phases: Part 1 (five days) and Part 2 (four days) starting from the 22nd.

The Ministry of National Defense plans to apply realistic scenarios considering international conflicts and infrastructure threats in this UFS, conducted alongside government exercises, to enhance the capability to conduct total national defense. These include the discovery and handling of improvised explosive devices at nuclear power plants, fires at semiconductor factories, and paralysis of bank computer networks.

Exercises for airport terror response to supplement and verify the integrated defense operation plan, drone attack response on civilian and military facilities, and damage recovery training for multi-use facilities will also be conducted. Joint field training exercises (FTX) by units and functions will be held as well. There are 11 exercises including combined scientific combat training, joint attack helicopter firing training, and joint maritime patrol operations.

Additionally, a four-star general of the South Korean military will command the Future Combined Command and conduct the Full Operational Capability (FOC) evaluation, the second stage of the three-stage operational capability assessment for the wartime operational control transfer.

North Korea has condemned the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises as provocations, rehearsals for a northern invasion war, reckless military challenges, and nuclear war drills. In particular, on the 27th of last month, Chairman Kim Jong-un threatened the South by saying, "If the current behavior that threatens our safety and escalates military tensions continues, there will be corresponding consequences." Analysts interpret the phrase 'behavior that escalates military tensions' as referring to the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises.

The Choson Sinbo, the organ of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan representing North Korea's position, also claimed on the 30th of last month that "In a strong-against-strong situation, corresponding measures proportional to the intensity of provocations and confrontation carried out by the opponent can be taken." Some speculate that North Korea may resume ballistic missile launch provocations, which have been suspended for some time, using the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises as a pretext. If this happens, it would immediately dampen the 'Bold Initiative' proposal made by President Yoon Suk-yeol in his Liberation Day speech the day before.

At that time, President Yoon stated, "If North Korea stops nuclear development and transitions to practical denuclearization, I will propose a bold initiative that can dramatically improve North Korea's economy and people's livelihood in accordance with that stage," and presented various economic cooperation plans.