"Let's Wait and See Musk"... Russia's Unexpected Counterattack? [Reading Science]

Rapid Increase in Threats from Russian Satellite Debris to Starlink Satellites
Evasive Maneuvers Performed Over 6,000 Times Near 841 Satellites

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Russia has been struggling after failing to achieve a swift victory following its invasion of Ukraine. In particular, the war situation has been broadcast live and counterattacks have been launched due to billionaire Elon Musk providing space internet services using Starlink satellites. Russia attempted countermeasures such as jamming and hacking but with little effect. However, it has been revealed that Russia is successfully launching a 'counterattack' against Musk's Starlink satellites in space in an unexpected way.

According to SpaceNews on the 9th (local time), the U.S. security think tank 'Secure World Foundation' disclosed this fact at the 'Small Satellite Conference' held earlier this month. Dan Oltrogge, director of COMSPOC, a space object tracking company, stated at the event that the number of cases where debris from Cosmos 1408, destroyed by Russia's anti-satellite missile (ASAT) test in November last year, threatens Starlink satellites is rapidly increasing.

The debris from Cosmos 1408 formed tens of thousands of fragments after the satellite was destroyed and currently orbits in a sun-synchronous orbit, which overlaps with the orbits of Starlink satellites, increasing the risk of close approaches or collisions.

According to Director Oltrogge, about 30% of the Starlink satellites launched so far, totaling 841 satellites, have been threatened approximately 6,000 times by Russian satellite debris. This means Cosmos 1408 debris approached within 10 km of these satellites. It is unclear how many avoidance maneuvers SpaceX has conducted in response. The situation has worsened as SpaceX recently launched the latest version of Starlink satellites, 'Group 3,' into polar orbits on the 10th and 22nd, which unfortunately coincide with the orbits where Russian satellite debris is dispersed.

SpaceX states that individual Starlink satellites have the capability to automatically avoid approaching debris and that no damage has occurred so far. The company revealed that from December 2021 to May this year, Starlink satellites performed about 7,000 avoidance maneuvers, of which approximately 1,700 were due to debris from Cosmos 1408.

Since satellites consume fuel during avoidance maneuvers, their lifespan shortens, so even if they are not destroyed, operational damage to the operators is inevitable to some extent. Experts also express concerns that damage could occur to other satellites besides SpaceX's Starlink satellites. Director Oltrogge said, "Although Starlink is avoiding debris with automated technology, it will be very difficult for other satellite operators without such technology," adding, "There is particular concern that debris could damage the International Space Station (ISS), which is in a different orbit."

Meanwhile, Musk urgently provided 5,000 Starlink satellite internet terminals in late February, immediately after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, at Ukraine's request and in cooperation with the U.S. government. These internet terminals have played a significant role in Ukraine's counterattack. They have helped raise global anti-war sentiment by reporting mass killings and combat situations worldwide, and provided location information that was crucial in Ukraine sinking the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship 'Moskva' with two missiles in early April. In response, Russia has attacked Starlink satellites with jamming and hacking, issued destruction orders, and threatened Musk by saying, "You must take responsibility like an adult."

Musk responded coolly by posting on social media, "If I die for mysterious reasons, it has been a pleasure knowing you all," and also stated, "Several Starlink terminals near the (Ukraine) combat zones experienced jamming simultaneously for several hours," adding that they are responding busily.