5 out of 10 People Regret Not Choosing Lee Jae-myung... Lame Duck After Two Months in Office Due to 'Personnel and Autocracy'

Approval Rating of President Yoon Drops to 30% Range in Various Polls Released in 2nd Week of July
50.3% Say 'Would Vote for Lee Jae-myung' if Returning to Election Day
Only 35.3% Say 'Would Vote for Yoon Seok-yeol'
Top Reasons for Negative Ratings: 'Personnel' (Gallup), 'Autocratic and Unilateral' (NBS)

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] In July, marking two months since his inauguration, President Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating has fallen to the 30% range, according to a series of recent polls. A common feature across various surveys is the 'dead cross' phenomenon, where negative responses of 'doing poorly' surpass positive responses of 'doing well.'

There was even a poll result showing that over 50% of respondents would choose 'candidate Lee Jae-myung' if the presidential election were held again. The proportion of those who would vote for 'candidate Yoon Seok-yeol' was only 35%. It is pointed out that the 'lame duck' phenomenon, typically seen as a leadership vacuum toward the end of a term, is appearing early in the Yoon administration.

The biggest issue identified is that despite controversies over 'personnel appointments' leading to accusations of private hiring, and the decline in approval ratings, the administration's response of "not being swayed by ups and downs" is perceived as 'autocratic.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Aggregating the results of four polls released between the 11th and 15th, President Yoon's approval rating for his national administration remained in the 30% range.

In the Realmeter survey (July 4-8, nationwide, 2,525 voters aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of ±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), President Yoon's approval rating in the first week of July dropped 7.4 percentage points from the previous week to 37.0%. Meanwhile, negative evaluations of 'doing poorly in national administration' rose by 6.8 percentage points to 57.0%, with the gap between positive and negative evaluations exceeding the margin of error at 20.0 percentage points. This is the first time since his inauguration that President Yoon's approval rating has fallen into the 30% range in the Realmeter survey.

In the July 2nd week National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted by Embrain Public, K-stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (July 11-13, 1,001 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), President Yoon's approval rating was 33%. This marks a 12 percentage point drop from the previous survey (June 5th week), which recorded 45%. Negative evaluations increased by 16 percentage points from 37% to 53% during the same period. This is the first time in the NBS poll that negative evaluations have surpassed positive ones.

The Korea Gallup survey (July 12-14, nationwide, 1,003 adults aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level) also showed that only 32% responded that President Yoon is 'performing his duties well' in the second week of July. In the Gallup survey, positive responses have steadily declined from 53% in the second week of June to 49% (third week of June) → 47% (fourth week of June) → 43% (fifth week of June) → 37% (first week of July) → 32% (second week of July). During the same period, negative responses rose by 20 percentage points from 33% to 53%.

Photo by Korea Gallup

It is considered unusual that the approval rating remains in the 30% range in various polls despite only about two months since the inauguration.

For example, during the 18th Park Geun-hye administration and the 19th Moon Jae-in administration, presidential approval ratings fell to the low 30% range in the third year of their terms: January 3rd week of 2015 (30%, amid year-end tax settlement and tax increase controversies) and April 1st week of 2021 (32%, amid LH speculation allegations and dismissal of Kim Sang-jo, Blue House policy chief). The sharp drop in approval ratings just two months after inauguration has even led to the term 'Chwi-in-deok' (inauguration duck) instead of 'lame duck.'

The main reasons cited for this rapid decline in approval ratings include 'lack of competence' and 'poor communication,' with 'personnel appointments' and 'autocracy' being pointed out as the biggest problems.

In the NBS survey, the most common reason for negative evaluations of President Yoon's governance was 'being autocratic and unilateral (30%),' followed by 'lack of experience and ability (28%)' and 'appointing unsuitable people to the cabinet (16%).' In the Gallup survey, reasons included 'personnel appointments' (26%), 'lack of experience, qualifications, and incompetence' (11%), 'not caring about the economy and people's livelihood' (10%), and 'poor communication' (5%). Particularly harsh criticism was directed at the hiring of acquaintances and relatives, with comments such as "The Blue House is not the 'Yoon Seok-yeol camp.'"

Lee Dong-young, spokesperson for the Justice Party's emergency committee, harshly criticized in a written briefing the day before, saying, "From the president's maternal relatives up to the sixth degree, former employees of Kim Kun-hee's Covana Contents, the sister of far-right YouTuber Ahn Jung-kwon, and now even the son of a 40-year-old close friend, the endless 'private hiring' controversy is beyond comprehension." He added, "We cannot help but ask whether President Yoon mistakenly thinks the Blue House is the 'Yoon Seok-yeol camp' and called for a comprehensive review of the Blue House's personnel verification system."

Meanwhile, one polling agency attracted attention by asking, "If you could go back to the day of the 20th presidential election, who would you vote for?"

Photo by Newstomato·Mediatomato

On July 12-13, News Tomato commissioned Media Tomato, a professional polling agency, to survey 1,015 adults aged 18 and over nationwide. The results showed that 50.3% of respondents answered 'Lee Jae-myung,' while only 35.3% answered 'Yoon Seok-yeol.'

The opposition expects President Yoon's approval rating decline to continue for some time. Former Democratic Party spokesperson Hyun Geun-taek predicted on CBS Radio on the 11th, "Most approval ratings peak early in the term and then decline, but to see a double score drop within two months of inauguration, it is expected to fall to the 20% range." Former National Intelligence Service Director Park Ji-won said on KBS Radio's 'Joo Jin-woo Live' on the 15th regarding the Yoon administration's approval rating, "It seems it will fall further." He criticized, "Secretaries tend to be people who are comfortable, and while having one or two is fine, if everywhere you appoint your close aides and prosecutors in cliques, will the public accept that?"