Former Prime Minister Abe Attacked and Dies; Japan's House of Councillors Election Today

On the afternoon of the 9th, one day before the Japanese House of Councillors election, people are crossing the street at the intersection in front of Shibuya Station, Tokyo. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Gwan-ju] The House of Councillors (upper house) election in Japan will be held on the 10th, two days after the shooting and death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Local media expect the ruling coalition (Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito) to comfortably maintain a majority of seats in this election.

The House of Councillors has 248 seats, with members serving six-year terms. Since half of the members are elected every three years, this time 125 members (including one by-election) will be elected.

According to opinion polls by major local media, the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito are predicted to secure 63 to 80 seats. If the forecast holds, the ruling coalition’s total seats after the election will be between 133 and 151.

The shooting and death of former Prime Minister Abe emerged as an unexpected variable near the end of the election campaign. Abe had considerable influence over the Kishida Fumio cabinet and led the largest faction within the LDP, the Abe faction. There are also projections that the tragic incident may lead to increased votes for the LDP.

There is also interest in whether constitutional revision could take place after the election. Proposing a constitutional amendment in Japan requires the approval of two-thirds or more of both the House of Representatives (lower house) and the House of Councillors. Ahead of this election, strengthening defense capabilities and constitutional revision have emerged as key issues. This is interpreted as a complex reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s maritime expansion, and North Korea’s missile launches. If the pro-amendment forces secure 82 or more seats in this election, they can maintain two-thirds (166 seats) or more of the total seats in the House of Councillors.