Russia "Complete Control of Luhansk" Ukrainian Troops Withdraw... EU Fears Escalation (Summary)

Over 75% of Donbas Controlled... Concerns Over Ukrainian Troop Encirclement
"EU Considering Lifting Kaliningrad Cargo Transport Restrictions"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The Russian military has announced that it has completely occupied Luhansk Province, a key area in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Except for some parts of Donetsk Province where fighting is still ongoing, it is understood that Russian forces have seized control of more than 75% of the Donbas region. As the balance of power in Donbas begins to break down, concerns are rising that the tide of the war will rapidly tilt in Russia's favor.

With Russia expected to take control of Donbas sooner than anticipated, there are also fears that the conflict could expand to encompass the entirety of Ukraine or spread to other parts of Europe. Within the European Union (EU), controversy is intensifying over the potential lifting of cargo transport restrictions to Kaliningrad, raising concerns about weakening unity in sanctions against Russia.

According to Russia's TASS news agency on the 3rd (local time), Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to President Vladimir Putin that Russian forces have occupied the entire Luhansk Province in Ukraine. Minister Shoigu stated, "We have liberated Luhansk by capturing Lysychansk, where the last resistance was taking place."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the British Guardian, the Ukrainian military also decided to fully withdraw from Lysychansk, the last stronghold in Luhansk Province, after continued airstrikes on the same day. As a result, Russian forces have occupied the entire Luhansk Province, which accounts for more than half of the Donbas region. Considering that more than half of Donetsk Province, the other part of Donbas, has already been occupied, the Guardian analyzed that Russian forces now control over 75% of the entire Donbas region.

Ukraine has expressed its intention to reclaim Luhansk Province by making the most of Western-supplied weapons. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized in a video speech that "We will retake Luhansk through tactical reinforcements and the supply of modern weapons," adding, "We will launch a counterattack using long-range weapons such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) provided by the United States."

However, since Russia has already seized all major strategic points in the Donbas region, it is analyzed that the possibility of Ukraine regaining these areas through counterattacks is slim. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in a report on the same day, "Russian forces will establish control over the entire Luhansk Province within the next few days, and the remaining Ukrainian forces in Donetsk Province will have to continue withdrawing to avoid encirclement from the north, east, and south."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As Russia is expected to capture the entire Donbas region sooner than anticipated, attention is focusing on Russia's future moves. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin named the invasion of Ukraine a "special military operation" targeting the Donbas region and declared that the operation would end once Donbas is fully liberated.

Within the EU, public opinion is growing that Russia should not be further provoked to prevent any further escalation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview with German public broadcaster ARD on the same day, "Even if the war with Russia ends, we cannot provide Ukraine with NATO-level security guarantees," emphasizing, "We are considering cautious diplomatic measures in preparation for the end of the war, and no matter what happens, our military will defend the Baltic Sea coastal areas."

The EU is also reportedly considering lifting the cargo transport restrictions to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave, which were previously imposed mainly by Lithuania.

According to Germany's Der Spiegel, the European Commission is reviewing the removal of the rail cargo transport restrictions to Kaliningrad via Lithuania and plans to announce a decision within this week. Western European countries, led by Germany, strongly advocate lifting the restrictions, while Lithuania and Eastern European countries oppose it, arguing that they should not yield to Russian threats, Der Spiegel reported.