5.5 Million Ukrainian Refugees Hosted by the EU... What Impact Will They Have on European Society? [Ukraine Shockwave⑩]

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] As Russia's sudden airstrike on Ukraine triggered the war, innocent civilians became refugees overnight. From young boys crossing the border alone with backpacks, crying without their parents, to heavily pregnant women holding their children's hands and parting from their husbands at the border, news of Ukrainian refugees pouring out during the 130-day war has pained people worldwide.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) on the 2nd (local time), the number of people who crossed the Ukrainian border and fled abroad from February 24, when the war broke out, until the 28th of last month, was counted at 8,402,336. Ukrainians who hurriedly crossed the border after the war mainly headed to neighboring countries. Poland had the largest number with 4.31 million, followed by Russia with 1.41 million, Hungary with 860,000, and Romania with 740,000. They also moved to Germany (870,000), the Czech Republic (380,000), and Turkey (150,000). The total number of individual Ukrainian refugees settled across Europe is 5,493,437, accounting for 13% of the Ukrainian population. Among them, about 3.57 million refugees are receiving temporary protection measures in Europe.

◆ Ukrainian Refugees as a Solution to Labor Shortage?

Europe is actively accepting Ukrainian refugees. Immediately after the Ukraine crisis, the European Union (EU) issued temporary protection guidelines and launched large-scale refugee support measures at the EU level. Ukrainian refugees settled in Europe can stay in EU member states for up to three years and receive various social benefits such as residence, education, employment, and medical care.

Ukrainian refugees who moved to Europe (Source=UNHCR)

European countries, which had responded negatively to refugee issues in recent years, are showing compassion toward Ukrainian refugees primarily because they perceive the Ukraine war as a European issue. Russia's invasion poses a significant threat to Europe, and since Ukraine borders Eastern European countries, the impact on Europe is substantial. Additionally, unlike refugees from the Middle East and Africa, the social instability caused by religious conflicts is perceived to be relatively low. The main religions of Ukrainians are Eastern Orthodox Christianity, Catholicism, and Protestantism. The relatively low hostility of Europeans toward Ukrainian refugees is believed to be influenced by these factors.

Above all, with the working-age population in the Eurozone decreasing and unemployment rates hitting record lows, there is great expectation that the influx of highly educated Ukrainian refugees will alleviate Europe's labor shortage. The European Training Foundation (ETF), affiliated with the EU, analyzed in a 2020 report that as of 2019, 53.6% of Ukraine's active population had received higher education or above, indicating a high level of education. The European Central Bank (ECB) released a report titled "The Impact of Ukrainian Refugee Inflows on Euro Area Labor Markets" on the 20th of last month, stating, "Ukraine's geographical and cultural proximity to Western Europe and the EU's temporary protection measures will help refugees adapt to the Eurozone labor market." The ECB projected that if 55% of all Ukrainian refugees settle in the Eurozone, the labor force in the region could increase by 300,000 to 1.3 million.

◆ Ukrainian Refugees Mainly Women and Children: "Situation Depends on War Outcome"

Currently, most Ukrainian refugees are women, children, and the elderly. As soon as the war broke out, Ukraine declared martial law, prohibiting men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country, so men could not move with their families and went to the battlefield. According to UNHCR, as of May, among 1.1 million Ukrainians officially registered as refugees in Poland and who received local resident numbers, 94% were women and children.

In particular, a survey conducted in March showed that over 80% of Ukrainian female refugees were traveling with at least one child. This means that even women who could work find it practically impossible to leave their children alone, effectively rendering them unable to work. Before the war, women accounted for 47% of Ukraine's labor force.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Viktor Nazmon, director of the Czech Labor Office, which actively accepts and supports Ukrainian refugees, said in an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW) last month, "Refugees believe they will be able to return home soon and are looking for short-term jobs. Even those with special qualifications show interest in manual labor," adding, "Those with children tend to prefer shift work."

Ultimately, the duration of the war and the extent of casualties will affect EU migration and labor markets. The ECB stated, "Once martial law is lifted, working-age men will join, and the proportion of working-age refugees will gradually increase," and projected, "In the medium term, 50-75% of Ukrainian refugees coming to the Eurozone will be working-age population."

◆ "Europe's Ugly Side Revealed" - Racism Controversy

While Europe embraces Ukrainian refugees, some have criticized this as racism. When the Syrian war broke out in 2015, many refugees from the Middle East moved to Europe, but many European countries rejected them. At that time, European countries strengthened border control capabilities to prevent illegal immigration by refugees.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Omer Karasapan, Middle East and North Africa Coordinator at the World Bank (WB), pointed out in an article posted on the Brookings Institution website on the 21st of last month that Europe's welcoming attitude toward Ukrainian refugees "stands in stark contrast to asylum seekers from Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and non-European refugees." He analyzed that the higher proportion of women and children among Ukrainian refugees compared to Syrian refugees, and the fact that over 70% of asylum seekers in Europe during the Syrian war were men, influenced this. He expressed concern that "male refugees are considered more threatening, vulnerable to crime or radicalization, without any reason."

In response to these criticisms, the EU denies racism. Margaritis Schinas, Vice President of the European Commission, told The Washington Post (WP) last month that the special situation of the Ukraine crisis occurring right next to Europe influenced the response, and that experiencing the refugee issue during the Syrian crisis created a belief that this is a common EU issue, leading to more acceptance of refugees and better border monitoring compared to before.