Provisional Voter Turnout 50.9%... Lowest Since 2002 Local Elections
Failure to Rally Democratic Party Supporters
People Power Party Supporters Unite Around Regime Stability
Democratic Party Supporters Seem to Have Lost Voting Momentum
[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The voter turnout for the June 1 local elections recorded the lowest rate in 20 years. Amid forecasts from exit polls predicting a landslide victory for the People Power Party, it is believed that the Democratic Party's supporters' abstention from voting contributed to the low turnout.
On the 1st, the National Election Commission reported that the provisional voter turnout for the 8th local elections was estimated at 50.9%. This is the lowest turnout since the 3rd local elections held in 2002, which recorded 48.9%. Considering that previous elections had higher turnout rates even during the severe COVID-19 pandemic, the low turnout in this election is an unusual phenomenon.
In connection with this, when linked to exit poll results predicting a victory for the People Power Party, the Democratic Party supporters' abstention from voting is analyzed as the main reason. In the last presidential election, President Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, received 48.6%, while Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, received 47.8%. In contrast, although there are regional differences in this election, the People Power Party appears to be significantly ahead.
On the 1st, the day of the 8th nationwide local elections, voters are casting their precious votes at the Namgajwa 2-dong 2nd polling station set up at Ruma Vertex in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@
What draws attention is that in a public opinion poll conducted by JTBC through online panels, 91% of respondents said they would vote for the same party as in the last presidential election. Although the support base's preferences did not change significantly, the differing election results indicate that voters did not turn out to vote. There were no 'shy Democratic Party' voters who responded in polls but voted in the election.
Several factors seem to have contributed to the Democratic Party supporters' lack of mobilization. These include the party's series of actions following the presidential election defeat, leadership conflicts surrounding sexual misconduct scandals, and various backlash related to Lee Jae-myung's candidacy in the Incheon Gyeyang-eul by-election, where he served as the general election campaign committee chairman.
Park Won-seok, former Policy Committee Chair of the Justice Party, appeared on CBS Radio that day and said, "Democratic-leaning voters tend to vote based on values and place great importance on justification. In this election, the Democratic Party faced many criticisms and accusations." He analyzed, "Former leader Song Young-gil's run for Seoul mayor and Lee's candidacy in Gyeyang-eul might have caused soft supporters to feel somewhat embarrassed, leading to weakened voting motivation." Park predicted that if turnout had exceeded 60%, Democratic Party supporters would have voted, adding, "Falling below 60% means the Democratic Party leadership's last-minute appeals were ineffective, and the disappointment of Democratic supporters who turned their backs on an election with relatively less justification was directly reflected in the turnout."
Additionally, considering that the presidential and local elections were held just 80 days apart, the ruling party's supporters had reasons to unite, but the opposition supporters likely experienced political fatigue. This also implies that the Democratic Party failed to rally its base around the argument of checking the ruling party's power.
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